July 14, 2005

Bryant Leads Race For Senate Nomination

The Ed Bryant for Senate campaign has released the results of a poll that shows Bryant leading in the race for the GOP nomination, and also shows that fellow Senate candidate Van Hilleary would lead in the race for the GOP nomination if he were running for governer instead of the U.S. Senate. Here is the Bryant campaign's press release...

Bryant Has Double-Digit Lead In New U.S. Senate Poll
Hilleary Preferred in Governor’s Race July 14, 2005

BRENTWOOD, TN – A new, statewide poll shows former federal prosecutor and Congressman Ed Bryant with a double-digit lead over his nearest competitor in the 4-way Republican primary to succeed Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who’s announced he will not seek re-election. In the same survey, 2002 Republican gubernatorial nominee Van Hilleary was the preferred candidate for Governor among the three Republicans most often mentioned as potential candidates.

"It's early, but this poll echoes what conservatives across Tennessee have been telling me: we must unite behind a solid, proven conservative who will defeat Bob Corker and the millions of dollars he's going to spend to try and hide his record of higher taxes and support for abortion rights," Bryant said.

The poll, conducted by Tennessee-based Ethridge & Associates on July 11-12, surveyed 500 likely Republican primary voters across Tennessee and has a margin of error of ± 4.4%. In the survey, Bryant enjoyed an 18 percentage point lead in the 4-way primary, a 33 point lead over former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker in a 2-way match up, and a 29 point lead in a 3-way contest against Corker and former GOP Chair Beth Harwell.

For Republicans encouraged by Governor Phil Bredesen's recently reported dip in popularity, 2002 Republican gubernatorial nominee Van Hilleary – in a 3-way gubernatorial primary -- led both Corker and Harwell with 31% of the vote.

GOP U.S. Senate Primary – 4-way
Ed Bryant 34%
Van Hilleary 16%
Bob Corker 6%
Beth Harwell 2%

GOP Gubernatorial Primary
Van Hilleary 31%
Bob Corker 8%
Beth Harwell 3%

GOP U.S. Senate Primary – 3-way
Ed Bryant 38%
Bob Corker 9%
Beth Harwell 5%

GOP U.S. Senate Primary – 2-way
Ed Bryant 43%
Bob Corker 10%

Previously, the Chattanooga Times Free Press reported that a March 22-24 poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group partner Harrison Hickman for Harold Ford Jr., "shows former U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant leading Republican contenders with 35 percent, followed by former U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary with 26 percent and Mr. [Bob] Corker with 15
percent."

Ethridge & Associates President Steve Ethridge, who in 1994 conducted the first poll showing then 18-year incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Sasser vulnerable to defeat, has served as Bryant's pollster for more than a decade.

I guess the paper thought that the undecideds would break along the same percentages, but I knew that was ridiculous. Sasser had been in office 18 years. The people who were saying they were "undecided" were not undecided about Sasser - they just hadn't fully decided yet to vote for Frist. As it turns out, Frist swamped Sasser as virtually all of those late undecideds voted for Frist, who beat Sasser by 13 points.