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« Flower Blogging | Main | Chavez: Blogs "Taking Aim" at "Bredesen's Supposed Fix of TennCare" » June 14, 2005The Too-Cautious CandidateThe guys over at Blogging For Bryant are analyzing U.S. Senate candidate Van Hilleary's strategy for explaining why his loss in the governor's race in 2002 proves he is electable to the Senate in 2006. Judging from Hilleary's message at the White County GOP's Davy Crockett dinner on Saturday, Hilleary is very worried about his distinction as the first Republican to lose statewide in Tennessee since before 1994. And it was a rather historic loss. Blogging For Bryant reports that Hilleary put out flyers at the White County dinner that discussed his 2002 loss to now-Gov. Phil Bredesen. From Hilleary's flyer: "Two of our Tennessee Republican Statesmen, Howard Baker and Lamar Alexander, had to run twice before they won their office. But in each case, their first run gave them significant advantages the second time around."Indeed it is. And doubly so because the reality is that in 2002 Hilleary lost a race he could have and should have won. Before he ran for governor in 2002, Hilleary compiled a record as a conservative congressman who steadfastly opposed tax increases - yet Hilleary managed to let the Democratic nominee - a former Nashville mayor who had raised property taxes repeatedly, and who was running as the nominee of the Tennessee Democratic Party which still had a state income tax as one of its stated goals - get to the right of him on the issue of a state income tax. Some say Hilleary lost that race because voters were punishing Republicans for Republican Gov. Don Sundquist's having pushed for creation of a state income tax. But that seems unlikely. In a general election where anti-income tax Republicans running for various other offices around Tennessee won big, Hilleary lost by a scant 50,000 votes or so, not a landslide, as Bredesen picked up some Republican support. But clearly some of Bredesen's support from Republicans came from the minority of Tennessee Republicans who favored an income tax and liked Bredesen's openness to such a tax as exemplified by his stated openness to considering a state income tax in a second term. At the same time, it was clear to anyone who was opposed to the state income tax that Sundquist was off the Republican reservation on that issue, and that his major allies in pushing for the tax were many of the state's most powerful Democrats - House Speaker Jimmy Naifeh, state Sen. Bob Rochelle, for example. The income tax was a part of the state Democratic Party's wish list, and every serious income tax bill was sponsored by Democrats. So how could Hilleary - whose anti-tax record was unquestioned - lose to the serial tax-raising nominee of the pro-income tax party? Simple: Hilleary failed to gain the support of conservative Democrats who were opposed to their party's support of a state income tax - and some anti-income tax Republicans, worried that Hilleary might be too weak on the income tax issue and end up as the third term of Don Sundquist, probably voted for Bredesen as well. Hilleary's problem was that he was too cautious and too nuanced on the issue of the state income tax, while Bredesen got the populist rhetoric right and convinced people that he - not Hilleary - was the stronger anti-income tax candidate. That, combined with Bredesen's claim that, as a former HMO operator, he had the expertise to fix TennCare (the fiscal cause of Sundquist's push for a state income tax) sealed Hilleary's fate. Given Hilleary's record of voting against tax increases and Bredesen's record of ramming tax increase after tax increase after tax increase through the Nashville Metro Council, you would have to be pretty incompetent to let that happen. But Hilleary - or his campaign advisors - did. And now the same brain trust that ran his terrible 2002 campaign is running his 2006 campaign. If Hilleary is the GOP's Senate nominee, Democrat Harold Ford Jr. will get to the right of him on some major issue where Ford will speak plainly with populist just-folks phrases and Hilleary will try to show his brainy side by being too nuanced and detailed. It could be the war, or the deficit, or something, but it WILL happen. And then, inevitably, Hilleary will lose. Posted in 2006 TN Senate Race
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I saw all four Republican senate candidates at the Davidson County Republican Party picnic in Centennial Park last weekend. Van's speech frightened me. Even the red meat Republican crowd seemed taken aback by his tone and tenor. I could not help but to think, "Thank God he lost two years ago." If we again make him a statewide nominee, we will be handing a Senate seat to whomever the Democrat's nominate. (And no, I'm not affiliated with any of the other campaigns. I'll work hard for, and vote for whomever the Republican nominee is. Only, if it's Van, I know I'll be supporting the eventual loser--again.) Posted by: anon at June 15, 2005 09:17 AMThe only viable candidates I see myself supporting at this point are either Bob Corker or Beth Harwell. Van Hilleary would be my third choice, but I don't think he is electable at this point because he has kept a low profile since the Governor's race. Ed Bryant's past association with Pat Robertson and his refusal to disavow the man's more extremist rhetoric is why I cannot support him. When I asked his campaign staff about it in '02, I didn't get a straight answer, which suggests to me there's something to hide. Robertson's rhetoric and conduct are offensive to me as a Christian and as an American, and Bryant's refusal to publicly disavow such indicates he must not have a problem with it. Posted by: Evangelist at June 15, 2005 11:52 AMDid "Evangelist" call on President Bush to disavow Bob Jones University's "extremist rhetoric?" Bush spoke there during the 2000 campaign and never, to my knowledge, spoke out against their policies. Does this make President Bush an extremist? If so, is it offensive to the "Evangelist" that none of the Republican Senate candidates, who all associate themselves with Bush, have disavowed President Bush's embrace of Bob Jones? One can only assume they don't have a problem with it. Right? Posted by: at June 15, 2005 01:10 PMTo answer the unnamed poster, indeed I said at the time that President Bush should disavow the extremist rhetoric by officials at Bob Jones University. I also think that the lefties should disavow the extremist rhetoric by officials at leftie schools, such as Harvard, UC Berkeley, etc. Neither extreme is in the mainstream. President Bush visited BJU. He didn't work for it. Ed Bryant worked for Pat Robertson. There is a difference. If people affiliated with BJU supported President Bush, they were signing on to HIS agenda. Ed Bryant worked for Pat Robertson, meaning he was signing on to Pat's agenda, not the other way around. Posted by: Evangelist at June 15, 2005 03:24 PMWhen, and in what capacity, did Ed Bryant work for Pat Robertson? Posted by: at June 15, 2005 04:01 PMInteresting Evangelist, so if a candidate goes and speaks at a KKK rally, the Klansmen are adopting the candidate's agenda, the candidate has no responsibility huh? Posted by: at June 15, 2005 04:46 PMEd Bryant was involved in Pat Robertson's (thankfully) ill-fated Presidential candidacy in 1988. Given Robertson's penchant for outrageous claims, bigoted remarks and his belief that America had it coming on Sept. 11, I would hope that Ed Bryant would disavow those claims. I would also hope that his campaign staff would tell the truth about Bryant's past involvement with Robertson. When I asked them about it in '02, they didn't. I seriously doubt any candidate would go and speak at a KKK rally. Well, maybe "Sheets" Byrd might, since he was a member of that group and has the distinction of being the only senator to vote against both Supreme Court nominees who were black. Posted by: Evangelist at June 16, 2005 11:34 AMFor the most part I agree with the comments by Mr. Hobbs regarding Van Hilleary's 2002 loss, but I never once thought Hilleary came across as too "brainy and nuanced." If anything, he came across way too "aww, shucks" for most people. This was a positive when he was a member of the "People's House" from a majority Democrat district, but voters demand a more statesmanlike presence from their Governor, and especially from their U.S. Senators. Hilleary looked much too amateurish running against a well-educated, though generally cold, Phil Bredesen. If his folksy style, be it real or contrived, couldn't beat a man once thought too aloof to win statewide office I can't begin to imagine how badly he would be trounced by a good-looking, well-spoken and very likable candidate in Harold Ford, Jr. Oh, yeah, and Ford just happens to be a pretty smart fellow, too! I like Van, but Ed Bryant is a much better choice for conservatives on both style and substance- most importantly, he can and will win! Van, please drop out of the race and enjoy your new home in Murfreesboro- it won't be too long much longer now before Bart Gordon tires of being in a permanent minority and you can waltz back into a position for which you are suited and can win with ease. Posted by: MiddleTennJTC at June 16, 2005 09:13 PMI actually didn't intend to leave the impression that I thought Hilleary WAS "brainy and nuanced" during the 2002 race, but that he tried to come across that way on the Income Tax. I know what he was trying to do - be anti-income tax while not scaring off the moderate Republicans who actually think the income tax might be a good thing. Posted by: Bill Hobbs at June 16, 2005 09:32 PMThanks for the clarification. Not that my opinion really matters, but now I agree with you 100%! It is too bad Hilleary tried to play it too cute on the income tax in 2002, in hopes of garnering moderate GOP voters (and, more importantly, the campaign contributions of the Sundquist crowd), but he alone created that reputation for himself and it is only logical to assume he would do so again in 2006 on some other issue. It didn't work then since he earned neither enough votes or enough dollars, and won't work next year, either. On a side note, I am very new to the world of reading blogs and thoroughly enjoy yours. Keep up the great work! Posted by: MiddleTennJTC at June 16, 2005 10:02 PMPost a comment
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