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April 6, 2005

Bryant Says Corker's Record of Tax Hikes Is Hurting Him in Polls

The Ed Bryant for Senate campaign has taken note of a poll commissioned by likely Democratic Senate candidate Harold Ford Jr.,'s campaign, and pointed out that it is third straight poll in which former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker has shown poorly.

The Ford poll, conducted March 22-24 by Global Strategy Group, shows Bryant with a nine-point lead over former U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary and a 20-point lead over Corker, among likely Republican voters. The Bryant campaign's press release predicts Corker will "unleash" a barrage of advertising ...to hide his record of higher taxes and move himself up in the polls."

"This new poll indicates that economic and social conservatives are rallying around the strong, proven conservative who can win the general election and make sure Senator Frist's seat doesn't fall into Democrat hands," Bryant said. "It's early and we're going to keep working hard to earn the support of as many economic and social conservatives as we can in an effort to turn back the barrage of advertising Mr. Corker will unleash to try and hide his record of higher taxes, and move himself up in the polls."
The Ford poll didn't mention GOP Senate candidate Beth Harwell, and had 24 percent undecided.
For Corker, this marks the third consecutive poll in which his support among likely Republican voters lags far behind the other Republicans in the field. An Ethridge & Associates survey of 646 likely Republican voters, conducted and released by Bryant in January, showed Corker at 13%. While an Anderson Group poll in early February of 400 likely Republican voters, conducted and released by Hilleary, showed Corker at 8%.

Corker's inability thus far to catch on with Republican voters may be attributed to the fact that, while he's claiming to be a "conservative" who's for "lower taxes," his record as Mayor proves he's:

raised property taxes and fees. (Chattanooga Times Free Press, 8/22/01, 9/12/02)

created a new hotel tax for the city of Chattanooga (on top of the existing Hamilton County tax). (Chattanooga Times Free Press, 2/27/02)

fought exemptions to Tennessee's sales, franchise and excise taxes and warned Tennesseans a state income tax could happen. (Chattanooga Times Free Press, 11/9/97)

The Global Strategy Group poll for likely U.S. Senate Candidate Harold Ford Jr. surveyed 600 likely voters, with a sub-sample of 190 Republicans, and each had a margin of error of +/- 6%.
Corker, a political protege of the state-income-tax-supporting former Gov. Don Sundquist, has raised more than $2 million, including money from Democrats allied with current Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen. But dollars aren't voters. And voters, especially those most likely to vote in the Republican primary next year, aren't friendly these days to politicians with a record of raising taxes and supporting tax increases. That's the Corker record, one which millions of dollars in advertising can't change - especially not now when there are blogs that will make sure the truth is published.

Posted in 2006 TN Senate Race | Linked By |
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Comments

Let's call this poll what it is: baloney put out by a Dem candidate who has a vested interest in influencing the GOP primary.

The general election data in this survey could be correct.

But the primary "results" are another matter. There are several reasons why these numbers are not valid.

1. First, this is not a primary survey. the statement says it's 600 general election voters.
2. The "GOP primary" sample in this Universe would be likely around 175. That's less than half enough to draw a conclusion, even if that sample of 175 was "good".
3. We don't know if they list results for self-identified "republicans" or people who pass through a screen for being a "republican primary voter"....there's a big difference in that
4.The Republican portion of this poll is apparently not geographically stratified for the primary sample. they stratified for the general election sample, but you couldn't do it for primary and general simultaneously and still hold overall sample at 600. Without a geographically stratified sample, the primary number is invalid at ANY size...much less for a cell size around 175.


This survey isn't meant for a GOP primary, it doesn't meet the methodological test for a primary, and was done by a Dem polling firm that has no experience polling in Repub primaries.

The GOP results aren't even worth even looking at.

Posted by: true conservative at April 7, 2005 12:37 PM
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