February 7, 2005

Senate 2006: A Very Crowded Field in Tennessee

There are two more big names likely to join the Tennessee 2006 U.S. Senate race. The first is former U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary, who narrowly lost the 2002 governor's race. Hilleary is riding high on a new poll that shows him leading in virtually any configuration of candidates in the GOP primary. Here's the Knoxville News-Sentinel story (free reg. req.)

The second is U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, according to this report. Blackburn is a fast-rising star, but at this point I'd guess she doesn't risk her very safe House seat by making the race - unless Tennessee law would allow her to run in the senate primary while also running for her House seat. If it does, she's probably in. Why? Because Blackburn would have nothing to lose if she lost in the Senate primary and if she did manage to win the primary in what's likely to be a very crowded GOP field, she'd be the favorite to win the general election against almost any Democrat.

And if Blackburn lost the primary she still would have increased her statewide name recognition for a run at the governor's mansion in 2010.

The Knoxville News Sentinel story about Hilleary notes that three Republicans - former U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant [pictured at left], Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker and former state Republican Chairman Beth Harwell - have already declared they intend to seek the Senate seat that Majority Leader Bill Frist plans to retire from next year, but Hilleary "has stayed on the sidelines." But, says the KNS, "commissioning of the poll is seen as a strong indication Hilleary is preparing to enter the race, though political consultant Brad Todd said no final decision has been made."

"He is thinking about it," said Todd, longtime adviser to Hilleary. [pictured at right] "I would say anybody who would look at this survey would have to conclude that he would start the race in a very strong position." ... Bryant had released earlier the results of a poll he had commissioned, surveying 646 likely GOP primary voters. It did not include Hilleary, Bryant said, because "no disrespect to Van, we didn't think he was running at the time."

Meanwhile, state Sen. Jim Bryson emailed this analysis of the race - on both sides of the aisle:

As Senator Frist steps down from the Senate, there is no shortage of people who would like to take his place. Democrats being mentioned prominently are Congressman Harold Ford and State Senator Rosalind Kurita. Personally, I don’t expect Harold Ford to run. He is a rising star in Congress with a bright future ahead of him. It would be difficult for him to win a statewide race against a solid Republican and, therefore, the race is too big a risk. Look for him to milk the publicity right up to the end…then pull out. Senator Kurita has made an extremely smart move by announcing for the Senate. She is not up for election in 2006. Even if she runs for the US Senate and loses, she keeps her State Senate seat and positions herself as a leading candidate for another office.

I keep wondering if prominent Nashville attorney and Democratic activist Bob Tuke will get in the race. Bob was John Kerry’s statewide Chairman and received a lot of visibility statewide. He is good on the stump, well connected among donors and has been a solid Democrat supporter for quite a while.

Republicans in the race are Ed Bryant (West TN), Bob Corker (East TN) and Beth Harwell (Middle TN). Though Bob Corker appears to be the early leader because he has raised over $2 million already, this race is difficult to call. Ed Bryant has run statewide and has some strong grassroots support. Beth Harwell is a smart politician and is coming off 4 years as State Republican Party Chairman, so she has a lot of contacts and knows the lay of the land.

The buzz now centers on Van Hilleary. He is expected to announce his candidacy in the next two weeks. Apparently he has hired campaign managers and fund raisers and also conducted a poll. In statewide name recognition, he easily beats all the other candidates. Van almost has no choice but to run. His gubernatorial run in 2002 left him with tremendous name recognition and goodwill. However, the next statewide election will not be until 2010. Van will have a very difficult time maintaining that name recognition until then. So, expect Van Hilleary to toss his hat in the ring very soon.

Stay tuned, there may be more Democrats and Republicans in the race before its all over.

If Hilleary's in, he's your front-runner for the GOP nod, followed by Bryant - the two are pictured here in a photo from the 2002 campaign when Bryant was running for the GOP senate nod (he lost to future Sen. Lamar Alexander) and Hilleary was running for governor.) I'd rank Corker and Blackburn - if she gets in - as tied for third, with Harwell fifth. Harwell has been an excellent state representative and state party chairman, but I don't see how her inside-the-game contacts can offset Hilleary or Bryant's name recognition or Corker's early fundraising lead.

As for Blackburn, the increasingly crowded GOP field is starting to look a lot like the 2002 congressional race primary in which she won a smashing victory against a crowded all-male field of mostly more-experience pols. Marsha's bumper sticker: Marsha's the Man.

One more wildcard prediction: if Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen stumbles badly this year, look for one big-name GOP candidate currently aiming at the U.S. Senate to change tracks and make a run at Bredesen.