September 8, 2004

John Kerry's Lock Box (It's Still 9/14/2001)

John Kerry is locked in a box. As long as the focus of the election is on the war on terror, Kerry can't win. All the reputable polls show voters overwhelmingly trust Bush over Kerry on the issue of combating terrorism. Increasingly, too, it appears that Bush has the upper hand on the issue of the battle in Iraq, the most controversial part of the war on terror - most voters believe the war in Iraq was the right war in the right place at the right time, and quibble only with the management of the operation, not the operation itself. And with John Kerry flip-flopping all over the place and making a dangerous promise to bring troops home by an arbitrary calendar deadline instead of only after victory is secured, voters have less and less reason to have any confidence in his ability to successfully prosecute the battle in Iraq.

It's no wonder, then, that the Kerry campaign desperately wishes to shift the focus to domestic issues like education, healthcare, the economy and the federal budget deficit. But here, too, there is precious little hope for Kerry. On education, Bush can point to the bipartisan No Child Left Behind legislation, which is already showing a positive impact on the education of our children. On healthcare, Bush pushed through a bipartisan Medicare reform plan that will result in senior citizens getting government-subsidized prescriptions. And on the economy, Bush can point to 12 straight months of jobs growth, including 2 million jobs since January 1. As for the deficit, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office announced yesterday that stronger-than-expected revenue growth has reduced this year's projected deficit by some $55 billion. Stronger revenue growth is the result of a stronger-than-expected economy. Bush can accurately point to his tax cuts as the reason for that.

But those are not why Kerry is locked in a box. He's in the box because the American public views terrorism as the overriding issue this year, of much higher importance than the economy or healthcare or education or the federal budget deficit.

So, when Kerry focuses on those other issues instead of terrorism, he communicates to the undecided voters and moderate Democrats that he is focused on the wrong thing and that he takes the threat of terrorism less seriously than he does those other issues - less seriously, indeed, than does George W. Bush.

The simple truth is, that George W. Bush is where most Americans are on the issue of terrorism, and he has been there since he stood atop "the Pile" on Sept. 14, 2001, and vowed that the terrorists would "hear from all of us" soon. The simple truth is, most Americans agree with the basic Bush doctrine for fighting terrorism: it isn't enough to just go after al Qaeda and the Taliban, we must also confront the regimes and dysfunctional societies that harbor, support and breed terrorists. And most Americans see the wisdom - and the link to the war on terror - in focusing on stopping the spread of weapons of mass destruction among such terror-breeding tyrannies.

Despite whatever criticisms they have of Bush on domestic policy or the economy, or even in the handling of the war in Iraq, most Americans know that the war on terror is the defining event of our time.

Unless something hugely dramatic happens to alter the equation, John Kerry will not wake up as president-elect on November 3. My prediction is Kerry will lose the popular vote by at least five percentage points, and Bush will win comfortably in the Electoral College. After months and months of being told the race was too close to call, it will be perceived as a landslide and a mandate.

Despite whatever disagreements they have with Bush on the lesser issues - and every issue is a lesser issue so long as Islamist terror remains a real and present danger - most Americans will stand atop the pile with George W. Bush on Nov. 2.