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« Wow | Main | Maxed Out » August 26, 2004More Evidence That Kerry Won't Win TennesseeSome national pundits are saying John Kerry could win Tennessee this November, but they're wrong. And Wednesday's Nashville City Paper carries a story that indicates I am right, they are wrong. The administration has said campaigning for Democrats prior to the Nov. 2 election would be a priority this fall in maintaining current majorities held in both the Senate and the House.Bredesen's popularity is sky-high in Tennessee right now as he has managed to do two straight years what his predecessor insisted for four years was impossible: balance the state budget without raising taxes or imposing a new state income tax, by cutting spending and reforming the mismanaged and waste-riddled state healthcare program known as TennCare. If Bredesen was on the November ballot, he'd win with 70 percent of the vote. He is perhaps the most popular governor in Tennessee history - so popular that many Tennessee Republicans like him, more than a few of us are happy he won, and there's no issue on which the state Republican Party can gain any serious traction against him. In short, that makes him the state's perfect pitchman for the head of the party's national ticket. But instead of playing in the politics' Big Game, Bredesen is working in the minor leagues. Yet, though Bredesen says he's for Kerry, he isn't actively working for Kerry. Why? Simple. John Kerry is a sure loser in Tennessee. No smart politician with a 70 percent-plus approval rating is going to tie himself to a sure loser. Some Tennesseans still recall how another very popular Democratic governor, Ned McWherter, found it to be a good day to go fishing when then-presidential candidate Michael Dukakis came to town. If John Kerry had a realistic chance to win Tennessee, Bredesen would be actively campaigning for Kerry. He isn't. That's all you need to know about Kerry's chances in Tennessee. Posted in Campaign Season
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I read once before that bredesen's a big hillary fan. I wonder if he's not wanting to balance her ticket in '08. Posted by: jimmy at August 26, 2004 08:17 AMBill - If John Kerry had a realistic chance to win Tennessee, Bredesen would be actively campaigning for Kerry. He isn't. That's all you need to know about Kerry's chances in Tennessee. That's it? You base this conclusion on the perception of a governor that isn't campaigning on behalf of Kerry? No polling data? No man-on-the-street interviews? No back-and-forth dialog in letters to editors? No special insight on local political activism? Hmmm. Posted by: Al Hedstrom at August 26, 2004 11:32 AMI wouldn't think any of those things really matter. I'm voting libertarian this year, but Senators don't end up President's historically for a reason...and even if Kerry reverses that trend, northeastern liberal is all most TN voters need to here. He'll lose Tennessee by at least 8 points. Posted by: Tim P. at August 26, 2004 12:31 PMAl, Phil Bredesen has the best political operation this state has ever seen, and has top-notch pollsters. What the story tells me is that he knows from his pollsters and his organization that Kerry is a sure loser in Tennessee, and he - being a rather smart man - ain't gonna tie himself to a sure loser and risk tarnishing his own popularity. Bredesen's got his eye on bigger things down the road. Endorsing the next Dukakis ain't the way to get there. If a Democrat governor with a 70 percent-plus approval rating looks at his internal polls and reports from his field ops and concludes he can not pull Kerry to victory in Tennessee, it's because it can't be done. Posted by: Bill Hobbs at August 26, 2004 01:51 PMBill - That's better. There's the foundation for the conclusion. It should have been there the first time. Posted by: Al Hedstrom at August 26, 2004 01:58 PMMy city home is in the 'burbs outside of Memphis. Like a good little blog reader, 2 Saturdays ago I sat on the bench in fron of City Hall and counted bumper stickers. It was about 4 to 1 pro Bush/Cheny. While I'm sure the Bi-coastal pundits and high rollin demogtaphers will laugh at my techinque, it has yet to fail me. I'm predicting Kerry comes up short of even Mondale's dismal numbers. I'll say it again: If Gore had had the foresight to oppose gun control, we would be discussing his reelection efforts right now. Posted by: SemiPundit at August 28, 2004 09:22 AMPost a comment
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