BillHobbs.com is a frequently updated blog of original reporting and commentary by Bill Hobbs, a longtime Nashville journalist and media relations adviser. I am currently serving as communications director for the Tennessee Republican Party, a job I began on Oct. 29, 2007.
New data from The Pew Research Center shows that the percentage of American adults who think things are going well in Iraq has risen sharply since dropping to 46 percent in May. Anti-bush sentiment is subsiding, Americans are paying less attention to news from Iraq - but an increasing majority believe the war was necessary.
The poll contains a fair amount of bad news for John Kerry.
Americans are paying markedly less attention to Iraq than in the last two months. At the same time, their opinions about the war have become more positive. The number of Americans who think the U.S. military effort is going well has jumped from 46% in May to 57%, despite ongoing violence in Iraq and the widening prison abuse scandal. And the percentage of the public who believes it was right to go to war inched up to 55%, from 51% in May.
The new Pew survey indicates that many Americans are becoming less connected to the news about Iraq and possibly more hardened to events there. Just 39% say they are tracking developments in Iraq very closely – down 15 points since April and the lowest level this year. In addition, 35% say that people they know are becoming less emotionally involved with the news from Iraq, a sharp increase from 26% last month.
The poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, conducted June 3-13 among 1,806 Americans, found lower attention to the war in Iraq even before the death of former President Ronald Reagan dominated the news. Overall, four-in-ten paid very close attention to Reagan's death and memorial service, which is about the same level as interest in former President Nixon's death and funeral a decade ago (36% very closely).
The survey shows that President Bush has improved his political standing over the past month. His overall approval rating increased slightly, from 44% in May to 48%. Notably, all of Bush's gains occurred after Reagan's death on June 5. Prior to that, Bush's approval rating was the same as in May (48% disapprove/44% approve). But during the remainder of the polling period (June 6-13), Bush's approval rating increased to 50%.
Bush also has gained ground in the presidential race. He currently is in a dead heat with Sen. John Kerry (48% Bush/46% Kerry) in a two-person contest; last month, Bush trailed Kerry by five points. When Ralph Nader is included, Bush leads by a slight margin (46%-42%).
The campaign continues to be dominated by feelings about Bush, but anti-Bush sentiment has subsided slightly. Just over a quarter of voters (27%) say they support Kerry based on their opposition to the president, down from 32% last month. Over the same period, Kerry's overall horse race support has fallen from 50% to 46%.
It's an interesting development and I'm looking forward to what the next month's figures show. Although an explanation that is sure to be put out on this is that it's a temporary Reagan bounce, I wonder if the real news is that support is holding at 57% after a temporary Abu Ghraib dip.
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