May 26, 2004

"Solid" Dem States Turn For Bush

John Kerry ought to be way ahead in states like Michigan and New Jersey, traditionally solid Democratic states. But he isn't.

Several states once seen as "solidly" behind Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry, including Michigan and New Jersey, have turned into battlegrounds where President Bush is a serious contender. Months ago, Michigan and New Jersey, which are heavily unionized and voted for Al Gore in 2000, were considered beyond Mr. Bush's reach. Now, despite the president's falling national approval rating for his handling of the Iraq war, pollsters say the economic recovery and perception of the president as a strong leader have turned both states in his direction.

"It's very hard to see us winning in November without carrying Michigan and New Jersey," said a Democratic National Committee official.

The swing in these two pivotal states underscores growing criticism within Democratic councils that Mr. Kerry, Massachusetts Democrat, has not put together a compelling message for the swing voters he needs. Mr. Kerry has grabbed the lead in one state that Mr. Bush carried in 2000, taking a seven-point advantage in Ohio, but he remains in virtual dead heats with the president in five states that Mr. Gore won - Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Oregon.

In New Jersey, Mr. Bush has surprised even his own campaign by overcoming Mr. Kerry's double-digit lead in the past month, as the state's unemployment rate remained below the national average at 5.3 percent.

"With continuing good news like this, it makes a compelling case for a really aggressive move on New Jersey," a key Bush strategist said.

Bush campaign spokesman Terry Holt said New Jersey's proximity to New York is playing a role in the polls. "The September 11 attacks hit very close to home and are very much on the minds of people in New Jersey, and the president has a strong record on those issues while John Kerry has backed away from them," Mr. Holt said.