May 16, 2004

Is Larry Daughtrey's Calculator Broken?

Larry Daughtrey's column in The Tennessean today looks at the growing rift between Tenenssee Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, and the Democratic leaders in the legislature, a rift driven by differences over what to do with the state's rapidly growing budget surplus. Daughtrey says the state is accumulating a $93 million surplus this fiscal year.

That's not true.

The state expects the surplus to reach $256 million this year, as I explained here. The $93 million figure simply represents the amount of the surplus that the Bredesen administration has not yet decided how to spend.

Daughtrey ought to know the truth of the $256 million surplus - even though The Tennessean has not reported yet on Friday's revenue report, which showed the surplus rising by nearly $100 million during the month of April.

After all, he has covered the legislature for years, and Finance & Administration Commissioner David Goetz gave the true surplus figures to the Senate Finance Committee two weeks ago. And Friday's revenue report clearly showed the state's surplus was already at $239.5 million, with three months to go in the fiscal year.

The question is, why would Daughtrey use the lower figure if he knows it to be false? The larger question is, why doesn't The Tennessean want its readers to know just how large the state's surplus really is? Are they afraid people might start asking for a reduction in the sales tax?