March 18, 2004

Push Poll

There's news today about a new poll from Middle Tennessee State University that purports to prove that Tennesseans - who overwhelmingly objected to an income tax four years - are actually in favor of the tax, and by a solid margin. [Via: NashvilleFiles.]

It's a push poll designed to get that result. It's a push poll, might I add, by a state-funded university that seeks ever higher flows of taxpayers dollars, a university that has a vested interest in the state raising taxes as increased taxes would go partly toward increasing funding of state universities.

Poll results are always determined in part by the questions that are asked, and this one is no different.

Prof. Ken Blake, an MTSU journalism professor and associate director of the MTSU Poll and author of the analysis says the polls shows that support for an income tax rises if it, in the question, is paired with a cut in the state sales tax rate, or an exemption for the first $15,000 earned, or an income tax with a flat rate.

"What most Tennesseans clearly and firmly oppose is a state income tax enacted on top of the taxes they already pay," Blake said. "But if state residents are offered an income tax paired with ending sales taxes on groceries and lowering sales taxes on other items, support moves well above 50 percent. Mentioning either a $15,000 exemption or a flat tax rate in conjunction with an income tax also produces increases in support, although these are less dramatic. Finally, it’s possible that about three-fourths of Tennesseans would support an income tax plan that included all three of these options."

If the MTSU Poll wanted to be truly helpful, they would have asked several additional questions about the state's tax code and pending legislation that would cap government spending and taxes based on a formula tied to economic growth.

Two good questions:

"Would you support amending the state constitution to require voter approval of future tax increases and new taxes?"

"Would you support amending the state constitution to cap the growth of government spending to a reasonable rate that accounts for inflation and population growth, and requires surplus tax revenue be rebated to taxpayers?

Those questions would accurately reflect the proposed Taxpayers Bill of Rights amendment now pending in the state legislature. And, I should add, I think if the pollsters asked people if they'd support an income tax if that amendment was already in the constitution, they'd find more support for it.

For more on the Taxpayers Bill of Rights amendment, go here.