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February 24, 2004

The Economy is Truckin'

There's some good local business news from Nashville that indicates, I think, a strengthening national economy: Peterbilt, which makes trucks at a big plant just north of Nashville, is adding workers and increasing production.

Rising truck sales mean more people are back on the job at Peterbilt Motors Co. in Madison. ... The plant, which cut production from 36 large trucks a day to 12 in 2002, plans to ramp up production to 30 trucks a day when the workers rejoin the assembly line in a little less than two weeks, plant manager Larry Vessels said. The plant assembles 20 trucks a day. ... After seeing sales declines bottom out to a 30% decline in August, the company's sales of Class 8 trucks, the industry term for the large ''18-wheelers'' built at the plant, are on the rebound, rising 72% in January as more companies replace aging fleets.
Truck production would seem to be an indicator for the health of the economy - after all, if more goods are being purchased, and produced, more trucks will be needed to get them to market.

And manufacturers are expecting a strong 2004, reports Reuters:

US manufacturers group predicts strong '04 rebound
The National Association of Manufacturers said on Monday that it expects a strong recovery in manufacturing this year, with the sector outperforming the economy as a whole.

The organization, which unveiled its forecast at National Manufacturing Week in Chicago, said it expects manufacturing production to increase by more than 6 percent this year, with U.S. gross domestic product up 4.1 percent.

"We are more positive about the outlook for manufacturing and the general economy than we have been over the past two or three years," NAM President Jerry Jasinowski told a press conference in Chicago's McCormick Place.

I blame the Bush tax cuts.

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Comments

Here in Missouri, I have my own little stupid economic indicators.

One of them is to notice how many shipping containers are stored at the railyards I drive past between my house and my job. A couple of years ago they were stacked five high in long rows. This is no longer the case.

Another indicator I note is the amount of advertising for high-end luxury items such as ocen cruises and automobiles over $50,000. When the ecnomy is slower, those types of products aren't advertised as the folks that can afford them know where to find them. When the economy is healthier, they need to compete with all the other things the upper-middle class might be interested in spending money to purchase.

Posted by: Hal Duston at February 24, 2004 12:45 PM

And what to your indicators tell you about the economy in Missouri?

Posted by: Bill at February 24, 2004 01:09 PM

Well, as I said, the number of shipping indicators being stored has decreased. I am presuming that they are once again in use. It would on the face of it odd to talk about shipping here in Missouri, but we are the heart of NAFTA. I-35 which runs right through Kansas City is called the NAFTA highway. We also have I-70 which runs from Baltimore through to somewhere in Colorado. The Missouri river is also a huge transportation for us here. There do appear to be a few more trucks on the road.

I am not seeing a huge number of advertisements for luxury items, however.

Also on a more personal anecdotal front, my job prospects are beginng to look like they will once again be improving in the spring. (I like to always have at least one and maybe two potential situtations available as a backup to insure continued employment.)

The biggest drag on the local economy here in Kansas City remains Sprint's continuing financial difficulties. But even there I am seeing the 5,000 laid off locally from Sprint in the last two years beginning to be absorbed by other companies, or by relocating to other parts of the country. My own personal view is that we will be in visible recovery by sometime this summer.

Posted by: Hal Duston at February 24, 2004 01:28 PM

On the topic of economic growth ... my ex-husband lost his job in Feb 2002, and has been out of work ever since. But he was just offered a job doing similar work at his old pay scale and will start next week. One data point does not prove a trend, of course, but the economy is definitely looking up from my perspective.

Posted by: Laurie at February 24, 2004 05:55 PM
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