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« Bush AWOL? | Main | More on Anonymous Blogging » February 4, 2004A Bush Landslide Ahead?Larry Kudlow on the economy and President Bush's reelection prospects: Liberal Yale economist Ray Fair has perfected a model that predicts election outcomes. Recently his model has been re-estimated by the well-respected Macroeconomic Advisors of St. Louis. Both models came within a few tenths of a percent of accurately predicting the popular vote in 2000. Taking into account today's strong economy, both predict a Bush victory with roughly 60 percent of the vote come November.Read the whole thing. Posted in Economy & Business
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We'll have to wait and see. Still too early to call. Seems Cash is starting to be attached to Kerry's name - see vodkapundit. Posted by: Sandy P. at February 4, 2004 11:09 PMI think that any landslide predictions have to be taken with a grain of salt. Only about 50 percent of registered voters will vote in Novemember, which I believe is around 40-50 percent of the populace?(Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. So it'll be the 22-23 percent who would never vote for Bush and the 22-23 percent who will always vote for Bush, and that 5 percent in the middle who could go either way. It will depend on who fires up their base more, and judging on the early numbers of turnout from the Democratic Primary states, it doesn't look good for the Democrats. Remember, we haven't had a President get 50 percent plus 1 in 16 years, and I highly doubt that this year will be any differnt. Only three times in the last 10 has a candidate gone over the 55 mark, none in the last 4. H.W. Bush won in 88 with nearly 80 percent of the delegates but only 53 percent of the vote. I could see that happening, a slight Bush win in a ton of states, long before we'll see someone climb up to win with 60 percent. Posted by: Josh McClain at February 5, 2004 01:36 AMLet's not rule out some 3rd party candidate tossing a wrench into the whole thing, which in my view could only solidify a Bush victory. Nader could still jump in, and I even read one wacky rumor that Howie D was going to screw the party and run independent, although I don't know how he'd be able to finance such a stunt. Posted by: dave at February 5, 2004 10:54 AMPost a comment
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