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February 2, 2004

WMD: The Weapon of Mass Deliverance

David Warren explains why everybody believed Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Read the whole thing. Here's an excerpt:

Saddam himself did not know he lacked weapons of mass destruction. The analyses of documents, interrogations, and searches conducted by Mr. Kay's teams paint the most extraordinary picture of a regime that had self-compressed into a general state of paranoid psychosis around the same key year of 1998, and functioned like an unstaffed mental asylum.

Saddam put himself personally in charge of all the weapons programmes, and trusting no one except the people running them for him, allowed them to pocket huge amounts of oil money for projects that never bore any fruit. Copious hypothetical plans were drawn up, and again and again the Kay teams found the paper equivalent of a "smoking gun", only to be unable to pair it with real-life evidence. That was because Saddam's weapons programmes - except for some progress in illicit missile-making - existed only on paper.

The result was, every senior person in Saddam's regime sincerely believed that, while he did not himself have access to "WMD", almost everyone else had. Indeed, as the invasion progressed, many captured officers in the Iraqi Army and Republican Guard declared that chemical or biological weapons had been deployed to the commanders on either side of them, but not to themselves. And it seems that Saddam himself actually ordered the deployment of the WMD he did not have, as the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division marched north from Kuwait. It was a shell game, all right, but the pea had been lost.

Western intelligence reports are therefore easy to explain, for they depended entirely on intercepted communications, easily-misinterpreted satellite pictures, and the reports of Iraqi defectors. All these sources tended to confirm that the Iraqi regime was trying to hide big things; none could guess it was trying to hide big things that didn't exist. For even if Saddam had the fondest inkling what was up, he would still not have come clean with Hans Blix or George Bush, for he needed to maintain the illusion of being lethally armed in order to keep his own people scared into submission, to aggrandize himself as leader of the Arab world, and, in his own strange little mind, to persuade the U.S. and Britain that he could inflict too many casualties to make a war against him worth having.

Amazing.

Imagine if the truth had become known in time to save Saddam. For one, the regime's rape rooms and torture prisons would still be in use and its mass graves would still be filling with more bodies of men, women and children. That much we know. The war saved hundreds of thousands of Iraqis' lives.

Now, imagine what might have happened had we not gone to war, and still believed Saddam had WMD and Saddam, deluded into believing he had WMD, threatened to use them against Israel. I don't mean an idle threat - I mean an ultimatum, with a date certain. What if Saddam had said, "If the Jews do not leave the occupied terroritories by Sept. 1, I'll nuke Tel Aviv." I suspect on August 31, Israel would destroy Baghdad.

Saddam was a dangerous man with WMD - never forget the chemically gassed Kurds and Iranians. He was also dangerous even with little or no WMD.

Saddam, himself deluded, deluded the world into believing he had weapons of mass destruction. Hence the many UN resolutions that he must disarm. Hence the deadline. Hence the U.S. military rolling into Baghdad.

We went to war based on lies.

But it was not George W. Bush's lies, nor Tony Blair's lies, nor the Clinton administration's lies, nor the United Nation's lies. It was the lies of Saddam's regime, a lie even he believed, that brought on the war. The war to rid Iraq of WMD that didn't exist.

Saddam Lied, His Regime Died.

Millions now live in freedom - because of a wicked man's lie.

Who said God doesn't have a sense of humor?

Posted in Weapons of Mass Destruction | Linked By |
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Comments

Words do have consequences.

Posted by: Sandy P. at February 2, 2004 06:02 PM

I'm still withholding judgement on whether or not Bush and his administration lied. I've heard too much about them riding roughshod over the CIA to be able to believe that everyone was completely fooled. That and the Feith group, which attempted to tie Saddam to al-Qaeda. I think it's possible that a lot more was going on here.

But, as I said, I'll wait for the evidence. Only time will tell.

Posted by: Bolo at February 2, 2004 08:38 PM

Bolo

Since you believe David Kay in his comments that there were no WMDs, I would assume you believe his comments that:

"Iraq under Hussein was a nest for anti-American terrorists.....I actually think what we learned during the inspection made Iraq a more dangerous place, potentially, than, in fact, we thought it was even before the war."

From there we can go to David Kay's interim report, http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/2003/david_kay_10022003.html Read in full it provides a litany of WMD programs, and attempts to develop these weapons. While it is true that none appear to have been successful, if we had not invaded, at what point would it have been successful, either through effort or puchase? One year? Two years?

So, what would have happened when a terrorist puchased a WMD? And there is no reason to believe that they could not have. Money talks, and OBL has a large amount.

Even worse, Saddam could not have lived forever. As the ruler of Iran lost control
in 1979 to the radicals, it is easy to see the same thing happening in Iraq as Saddam died. At that point we have a radical Moslem country with WMDs.

Both of these scenarios are hypothetical, but if we can blog about it, the President's staff and intelligence people also had to consider that possibility.

We should also rememeber that by fall of 02 the Democrats were pushhing Bush for not "knowing" about the 9/11 attack in advance. Hillary C in particular.

At the same time, various members of the Clinton administration and Democratic leadership had made comment after comment about Saddam. I.e.

"We begin with the common belief that Saddam Hussein is a tyrant and a
threat to the peace and stability of the region. He has ignored the mandate of the United Nations and is building weapons of mass destruction and the means of delivering them." - Sen. Carl Levin (D, MI), Sept. 19, 2002

"We know that he has stored secret supplies of biological and chemical
weapons throughout out his country." - Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002

"We have known for many years that Saddam Hussein is seeking and developing weapons of mass destruction." - Sen.Ted Kennedy (D, MA), Sept. 27, 2002

So, when you consider all of these things, what would you have done? Me? I hope I would have had the courage to bite the bullet and move ahead. Second guessing and 20-20 hindsight is great, but
if just part of the information he had was correct, New York could have ceased to exist.

Posted by: Poker Player (aka Jim) at February 2, 2004 11:44 PM

After speaking to "innumerable" U.S. intelligence officers, David Kay has concluded that Bush administration officials did not pressure analysts to exaggerate the threats posed by Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. On Capitol Hill, the Senate Intelligence Committee staff has interviewed over 175 analysts and critics and reached the same conclusion.
Leading the C.I.A.'s own internal review, Richard Kerr has apparently also concluded that there is no evidence that political pressures influenced the C.I.A. reports.

Bolo, would you care to change your mind about the Bush administration riding roughshod over the CIA? According to the CIA and Kay, that didn't happen.

Posted by: Steverino at February 3, 2004 09:51 AM

Steverino - can you provide me links to those? I'd like them for this comment thread and for future reference 'cuz you know that's a future line of attack by the Bush-haters.

Posted by: Bill Hobbs at February 3, 2004 04:43 PM

It's hard to believe that we didn't have anybody on the ground in Iraq through all those years, or couldn't buy information from anyone involved, considering that we have sophisticated technical resources and vast international contacts.

Remember, a kid from California went to Afghanistan, joined the Taliban, trained with them, fought with them, and shook hands with Bin Laden.

Now that it is getting safer to speak out in Iraq, we will hopefully get more of the inside story from those involved in the mythical programs. So far, I haven't heard much.

Posted by: SemiPundit at February 4, 2004 01:24 PM
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