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« Bush AWOL? FactCheck.org Says No | Main | Rev. Artillery Weighs In on Bush AWOL » January 23, 2004Landslide?Thanks to Michael J. Totten, I found a blog that, based on current polls, projects a Bush landslide victory in November. The blogger is a North Carolinian with a passion for politics and a lifelong fascination with numbers. His current projection has Bush winning the states in red: Posted in Campaign Season
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Mr. Totten is a good writer... He is a liberal Democrat and a strong supporter of the Iraq war, and he has provided a lot of valuable information and insight regarding the leftist philosophy that can be used to justify the war. I used some of his material and ideas in my recent blog entry (it's currently 3rd down my blog's main page), about Joe Lieberman and the pro-war Left. I read, in one of Mr. Totten's comments at a recent blog entry of his, that he backed Ralph Nader in the last presidential election. I think I recently read somewhere that he was backing Wesley Clark in this election, but has now withdrawn his support for the Democratic general. I haven't been reading his blog very much, so I do not know who he is backing now... It will be interesting to see who Mr. Totten, and other pro-war liberals and Democrats, will be supporting in the upcoming presidential general election. As I've stated before, it would not be surprising if Democrats support Bush for re-election... Due to many of the policies of this administration, that might be appropriate. Posted by: Aakash at January 23, 2004 11:05 PMIL will not go red. We're the Peoples' Republic of Illinois now. Posted by: Sandy P. at January 23, 2004 11:29 PMSome of those poll numbers he's quoting are off, though, and I have to wonder what the source is. Last I looked, most Americans are comfortable with the idea of privatized accounts for social security. And what kind of reasoning is "most Americans now think taxes are just about right?" Well duh, we got the Bush tax cuts--most of us have, anyway--so doesn't that mean most Americans are fine with the cuts? Gay marriage--last I looked, Gallup was showing about 65% opposed to it, so the fact that the opposition to it has been dropping "every decade" is not particularly insightful. I have to wonder, in fact, if some of those aren't internal Democratic polls with questions spun a certain way. I could go on, but my point is made. He's right that Dems are doing piss-poor on foreign policy, but he's living a pipe dream if he thinks the entire Bush domestic agenda is unpopular at home. Posted by: Dean Esmay at January 24, 2004 01:32 AMSandy P. is right. At the moment there is some question as to whether the Democrats will even allow Mr. Bush to be on the ballot. And of course, the fact that the local GOPers insisted on making it clear that they would work to make the Republican Senator lose his race for reelection (prompting him to choose not to run) is an effective guarantee that what should have been an incumbant seat for us is now up for grabs. The coming implosion of the Democrats at the national level is surpassed only by the current and deserved implosion of the GOP in Illinois at the state level. ~_~ Posted by: The Snark Who Was Really a Boojum at January 24, 2004 05:06 AMMr. Hobbs, RED=BLOOD? Mr. Esmay, In this case, being piss-poor on foreign policy is akin to screaming in the back seat while being driven over a cliff. Posted by: SemiPundit at January 24, 2004 10:31 AMMr. Semipundit, I don't mind regarding red states as sanguine although that would imply that we should also regard blue states as too melancholy to function. ^_~ "In this case, being piss-poor on foreign policy is akin to screaming in the back seat while being driven over a cliff." ...which may be why the car would be going over the cliff in the first place. A mindless "Yeaaargh!" or a hysterical screech of "Not in my name!" from the backseat at the wrong moment, for no good reason, would disrupt even the finest of drivers unless that driver knew in advance that the passinger was not worth heeding. One thing is certain; it would be foolish to ever allow such a passinger a turn at the wheel since their own reliability as a driver would certainly be in doubt. :P Posted by: The Snark Who Was Really a Boojum at January 24, 2004 03:12 PMHmmph. What with his profligate spending and mindlessly improvident immigration reform proposals, they'll be a blue dot in Georgia. Make that a nuetral-colored dot. Nothing could make me vote for Dean, Kerry or Edwards. Posted by: Twn at January 24, 2004 04:04 PMWell, according to Newsweek, this map must be all wrong -- they've got a poll showing %52 don't want to see Bush reelected. Poll, though. . . . Posted by: Twn at January 24, 2004 09:08 PM"Some of those poll numbers he's quoting are off, though, and I have to wonder what the source is." Indeed a couple of them were wrong on the site. I did have them right in my spreadsheet, so consider them nothing more than typos. I updated the map today. Bush has slipped quite a bit since is high on Jan 12. Illinois is back in the blue. One thing to keep in mind: because the projection uses the last several polls released, sometimes it lags movement in public sentiment. That's why you can see such a huge red advantage even while the latest poll may be far from rosy..heh..for the President. Posted by: The Blogging Caesar at January 25, 2004 12:28 AM52% "don't want him re-elected" is a bit of a sloppy way of phrasing it. "Would prefer someone else" is the way such questions are usually asked, and it's not uncommon for some voters to say, "Well I wouldn't mind a change, but I'd have to see who he's running against." Bush's re-elect numbers are actually quite comfortable for a sitting President. He is, of course, not unbeatable, but it's wishful thinking of the worst sort to concentrate on every potential negative and pray that it means the guy you don't like will lose. As for foreign policy: personally, like a majority of Americans, I believe the President's doing a fine job in that regard, and the screaming in the back seat from Democrats only irritates me, as it does a lot of other independent voters. This is a down side for them and they need to start being aware of it. Of course, there's still plenty of time for the eventual Democratic nominee to redefine himself on such issues. I expect whoever the nominee is to try to get to Bush's right on such issues once the nomination is settled. Indeed, Howard Dean has already promised explicitely to do so, and said that he is not really the anti-war candidate. I'm rather surprised he hasn't alienated his followers because of that. But not very, since his followers aren't entirely rational in their love for him or their hate for Bush. Posted by: Dean Esmay at January 25, 2004 02:45 AMDean Esmay, I saw the source for the Immigration Issue poll: American Border Patrol (www.americanpatrol.org). These people have a nasty habit of using vigilante means to chase down illegals. Their think tank (Center for Immigration Studies) has been know to fudge stats on illegals using government services. Posted by: Brad S at January 26, 2004 11:05 AM |
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