July 17, 2008

Playing the Race Card in Tennessee ... and Beyond

Wall Street Journal writer Katherine Rizzo examines the race within the race for the Democratic nomination in Tennessee's Ninth Congressional District, concluding says that if incumbent Rep. Steve Cohen doesn't win, "it may be because he is white."

She also questions whether Barack Obama - who has taken sides in some Dem congressional primaries - will make an endorsement in the race between Cohen and Nikki Tinker, who is black.

Somehow, I doubt it.

Speaking of race and Obama, the New York Times story Tuesday, "Poll Finds Obama Isn't Closing Divide on Race," has some buried nuggets of interesting stuff from the latest NYT/CBS Poll.

For example:

Black voters were far more likely than whites to say that Mr. Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like them, and more likely to describe him as patriotic. Whites were more likely than blacks to say that Mr. Obama says what he thinks people want to hear, rather than what he truly believes. ... About 40 percent of blacks said that Mr. McCain, if elected president, would favor whites over blacks should he win the election.

And then there's this bit of data: Black Democrats were 24 points more likely than white Democrats to have a favorable opinion of Mr. Obama. Which leads to interesting scenarios like this:

"I don't like some of his policies, like on energy," said Bob Beidelman, 69, a white Democrat from York, Pa., about Mr. Obama. "Also I don't like statements his wife made. She seems like a spoiled brat to me."

He added: "I'm one of those white people who clings to guns and the Bible, and those things that Barack said kind of turned me off," he said. "This isn't a black and white thing. If a conservative African-American like former Congressman J.C. Watts was running, I'd have bumper stickers plastered all over my car supporting him."

There are white Democrats out there who would be happy to vote for a black candidate for president, but who don't like Obama and the ultra-liberal change he stands for. And there are black conservatives who are torn, given the historic possibility of America electing the first real black president (Bill Clinton notwithstanding).

One such black conservative: J.C Watts.

As U.S. News magazine reported in late June:

Former Republican Rep. J. C. Watts received attention when he told reporters he was contemplating an Obama vote. "I'm a free agent," says Watts, who is one of the only two black Republicans to serve in the House of Representatives since the 1930s. "I wouldn't just vote for a Republican candidate just because they are Republican, no more than I would vote for a black candidate just because they're black."

For Watts it's not the historical nature of the race that leaves him undecided, it's frustration toward his own party. "African-American Republicans in the faith community are the most forgotten demographic in the Republican Party," Watts says. And he hopes the GOP will allot more resources toward attracting black voters.

Watts and others argue that the GOP hasn't done a good job bringing African Americans into the ranks of the party. ... This perceived failure has been reflected at the polls. In 2004, George W. Bush attracted 11 percent of the black vote, up from the 9 percent he garnered in 2000. In 1996, Bob Dole, running against the nation's so-called "first black president," Bill Clinton, received 12 percent. And now with Obama in the picture, more conservative blacks may feel compelled to join the heftier group of black voters who support the Democrat.

"They're practical if nothing else, and they want to see a black president," Ronald Walters, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland, says of black Republican voters. "The historical factor is going to overrun some of the other considerations." In a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, 7 percent of the surveyed African-American adults supported McCain, while 90 percent supported Obama.

One such issue: abortion. The heavily religious black community is more opposed to abortion than the American public in general.

I doubt Watts will ultimately vote for Obama, given Watts' strong pro-life views and Obama's strongly pro-abortion record, including his vote as an Illinois state senator to allow hospitals to deny medical care to infants born surviving an abortion.

Watts has often been talked about as a possible VP choice for McCain. His suggestion that he might vote for Obama shouldn't disqualify him, especially given Watts' reasoning behind it, and given his strong record of conservatism, his strong record of achievement and success outside of politics, his strong command of policy, his charisma, his willingness to tell hard truths, and rhetorical skills that equal Barack Obama's. (Like Huckabee, he once was a Baptist preacher, and it shows.)

There are a lot of great possible VP choices for McCain. Watts - a 50-year-old married father of five with five grandchildren - is one who could fire up conservative Republicans, keep black Republicans from bolting to Obama, neutralize the incessant whining from the Obama camp calling every criticism of Obama a racist attack, and attract conservative black Democrats. He might also bring in white Democrats like Bob Beidelman of York, Pa.

It is an intriguing scenario. No other possible VP nominee so completely scrambles the deck of race cards that Obama and the Democrats are subtly dealing from this year.