June 4, 2008

Coattails

Kingsport Times-News political reporter Hank Hayes looks at Barack Obama's chances in Tennessee.

Recent history suggests that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama - who will campaign in Bristol, Va., today - will need more than Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen's coattails or state Democratic Party unity to win Tennessee this year. "I think (GOP presidential nominee) John McCain will have longer coattails in Tennessee than either Bredesen or Obama," Tennessee Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, R-Blountville, predicted.

This was amply demonstrated in 2006 when, despite winning re-election with 70 percent of the vote, Bredesen was unable to help a single Democrat challenger knock off a single Republican incumbent anywhere in Tennessee save one race. In that race Democrat challenger Lowe Finney squeaked past incumbent Republican state Sen. Don McCleary, an ex-Democrat who switched parties in mid-term and then tried to hang on to his seat.

But in every other race in which Bredesen raised money, cut ads and campaigned for a Democratic challenger to a Republican incumbent, the Republican incumbent won - and by a comfortable margin, often despite being outspent. Bredesen also worked hard on behalf of three Democrat candidates for open seats, and only one of those candidates was victorious, in a Democrat-leaning district.

If Bredesen, who won all 95 counties in 2006, couldn't help Democrats win legislative seats, Obama, who won only 9 counties in this year's Dem primary, certainly isn't going to provide coat tails to help the Tennessee Democrat Party gain ground in the legislature. Quite the opposite - Obama only won in counties in Tennessee that lean heavily Democrat and liberal. He's likely to be a drag on Democrat chances in districts where voters don't often shop for arugula at Whole Foods.

That means that every dollar you might donate to Republican candidates in key races, and to the Tennessee Republican Party for use in those races, has just been made more valuable by Obama's clinching of the Democrat presidential nomination. It's something to consider, especially if you're a Tennessee Republican living in a "safe" Republican district and you'd like for your incumbent Republican to be, finally, a member of the majority party in both houses of the state legislature.