April 12, 2008

Losing Pennsylvania

Being from Pennsylvania and understanding Pennsylvanians a whole lot better than Barack Obama and his campaign brain trust do, I never believed Obama had much of a chance to win that state's Democratic primary. He'll do okay in Philly and its liberal suburbs, but James Carville was right when he said Pennsylvania is Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west, and a whole lot of Alabama in between.

Memo to liberals: You're wrong if you think Carville's description was a pejorative put-down. He did not call the huge numbers of Pennsylvanians spread across the rural areas and small and mid-sized towns and burgs of the central part of the state ignorant hayseeds. He was reflecting that they are, culturally, a lot like the people of the rural south - people of strong religious faith, a belief in traditional values, respect for the military and a strong support for (and active participation in) the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms. They're people who respect the Amish culture that still thrives across much of south central PA.

Pennsylvania may have gone Democrat in recent elections, and its urban areas have certainly sent their share of liberal Democrats to Congress, but it a state steeped in American history, a state proud of its role in the foundation of American liberty and democracy, and a state where huge numbers of people over the decades have worked at such places as the Naval shipyard, at the Boeing plant in suburban Philly where thousands of workers have built Chinook helicopters for the military since 1960, and at the Sunoco refinery.

They may be Democrats but they're not military-hating, America-blaming, Prius-driving West Coast liberals or welfare-dependent urban Chicago Machine Democrats or New York latte liberals who don't understand why people go to church. They're Democrats who own guns for hunting and self-protection, who hang crucifixes and religious sayings on the walls of their homes, who home-school their kids and who are more likely than your average Democrat elitist to actually know a miner or a factory worker - or to be one. Their sports heroes tend to be blue-collar guys who play for the Steelers, or the Eagles or the Phillies - not the flashy, glitzy, superstar players or the thugs that might be stars on other teams in other towns.

They're Reagan Democrats.

Pennsylvania voters once chose a pro-life, fiscal conservative as their governor over a pro-choice fiscal liberal - and the pro-life fiscal conservative was the Democrat.

In short, they're a target-rich environment for a candidate like John McCain - especially now Obama has blown a big hole in his chances of winning Pennsylvania in the general election, should he hang on to win the Democrat's nominee.

Pennsylvania has large populations of culturally conservative Catholics, of retirees, and of military veterans. Memo to Barack: You don't win the votes of such people by insulting them as ignorant, gun-totin' Bible-thumpers.

If Democrats do nominate Obama, the odds of John McCain winning the blue state of Pennsylvania on November 4 just went up, dramatically.