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February 29, 2008A Middle NameI received the following from one of my most eloquent readers, who often emails me fantastic and wonderfully-written pieces only to ask me not to publish them. This one arrived under the subject line Appalling ignorance in the MSM!, and the writer gave me permission to share it with you. Sadly, if predictably, hACK, over at Nashville's Channel 2, and Blake Fontenay, at the Commercial Appeal, find themselves, again, historically challenged.Knowing the dedication of McCain's father and grandfather to this country, I find it entirely plausible that the got the name Sidney from this source. As a former American history major who went on to major in journalism and then work in that profession, I must add two observations. The first is that I've always been a huge fan of John Locke, an intellectual father of libertarian thought. The second is this: Many journalists don't pay much attention to history - they are too busy writing the first rough draft of future history, a task that suffers greatly from their failure to know much about or the past. A great weakness in traditional college journalism programs is that they teach students the basic skills of journalism - interviewing, story structure, editing, headline writing, and such - but rarely require them to get an education in something substantive such as history, economics, poli-sci or science that might give their writing more weight. I studied American history twice as long as it took me to complete me journalism degree requirements. Frankly, it's made writing about politics and government much more interesting and fun. Here's the Wikipedia page for Algernon Sidney. That Giant Sucking Sound
As the southeastern United States continues to grow in population and economic development, access to water is going to be an increasingly important political issue, often involving cross-border political battles. Tennessee is blessed with abundant water. Georgia wants some of it. Other states will too. And this isn't just about water for drinking and doing the laundry - water is a key to economic development. If Georgia - which is to say Atlanta - somehow gets a court to give it access to the Tennessee River, every billion gallons sucked southward to Atlanta is a billion fewer gallons available for economic development in Tennessee and, downriver, Alabama. The giant sucking sound of Georgia draining the Tennessee River would drain Tennessee's and Alabama's economic development prospects proportionally, and sail that economic growth on down to Atlanta. Jokes about settling the Georgia border dispute with a college football game, or photo-ops sending bottled water to the Georgia legislature are fine - but Georgia's serious, folks. They're already embroiled in a long-running legal battle with Florida and Alabama. It's a safe bet they're planning on added Tennessee to that list. Too GreenHillary Clinton has launched a devastating new ad, titled "Children," suggesting - rightly - that Barack Obama is simply too green to handle a major international crisis. Though polls show that, even more than Sen. Clinton, it is John McCain whom Americans most trust right now to handle issues such as terrorism and the war. New data from the Pew Research Center underscores those other polls:A solid majority of voters (56%) says Obama has not provided enough information about his plans and policies; in contrast, most voters say Clinton and McCain have disclosed enough information about their plans. Moreover, a plurality of voters (43%) says that Obama would not be "tough enough" in dealing with foreign policy and national security issues.So, there is fertile ground for Clinton to build on the feelings many Americans already have that Obama isn't the best choice for keeping us safe. Clinton's ad is good. It's reminiscent in tone to Ronald Reagan's fabulous "Bear in the Woods" ad from the 1984 campaign and, 24 years later, still one of the best political ads ever made. But I don't think Clinton's new ad is going to do her much good. If she was facing an inexperienced thin-resume empty-suit like Obama in the general election it might, as the ad's message might appeal to swing voters for whom terrorism, the war and national security are big issues. That's not the people whose support she's battling with Obama for. Obama is being propelled by anti-war Democrats, who don't care about his inexperience because, frankly, they don't think there is a threat. Just as 24 years ago, there are those on the Left who do not believe there is a hostile bear in the woods. Still, nice ad.
February 28, 2008PollsSome conservatives ain't happy with John McCain as the likely Republican presidential nominee, and Barry O's campaign is trumpeting "Obama Republicans" who plan to vote for him rather than McCain. Yeah, okay, but the polls right now show that Johnny Mac's got the inside track to the White House with the American people as a whole. Rasmussen Poll, Feb 27: With the general election campaign season coming soon, voters currently trust John McCain more than Barack Obama on issues of National Security, the War in Iraq, the Economy, and Taxes. Obama is trusted more when it comes to Reducing Government Corruption. The Republican hopeful has a slight lead over the Democratic frontrunner in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.Times poll: When all voters are asked to look ahead to the general election, Mr. McCain, the likely Republican nominee, is seen as better prepared for the presidency, better able to handle an international crisis and more equipped to serve as commander in chief than either of the Democratic candidates.And that would be because he is. Solutions Not Soundbites
More Freedom, More Guns; More Guns, More FreedomA comparative study of 59 countries finds that "the nations with the highest rates of gun ownerhsip tend to have greater political and civil freedom, greater economic freedom and prosperity, and much less corruption than other nations." Now do you understand why liberals hate guns? Lottery News
Democrats in the state legislature want to lower standards for the scholarships and turn them into a lottery-funded entitlement program that would eventually have to be augmented with tax dollars. Republicans want to keep the program as a true merit-based scholarship program. Sounds like its the Republicans who are in tune with the people of Tennessee on this one. Hey, Obama, Al Qaeda's Not Just In Iraq, They're In America TooFrom the Wednesday Washington Post: Imam From Va. Mosque Now Thought to Have Aided Al-Qaeda Schooling the Legislature
Give Guns A ChanceStudent journalists at Vanderbilt University endorse allowing students to carry guns on campus. "We cannot let the fear of guns themselves prevent us from protecting ourselves," the writer says. Well-written and smartly argued. Sweeping Out The TrashWhat does a link from Daily Kos and attention from the Left get you? A flood of appalling comment-sludge. Not spam. Sludge, dumped by angry left-wingers who can't seem to make an argument without using a bucket full of foul language and without engaging in personal attack. Comments like that came in by the hundreds yesterday, each one a testament to the refusal of the Left to debate the issue of Barack Obama's coziness with terrorist supporters and focusing instead on the use of Obama's middle name. My blog's comments policy bars such language and personal attack, I deleted them. All of them. Because I simply didn't feel like wasting my time reading every single comment. Even supportive, favorable comments and non-supportive but reasonably-stated comments were deleted, and the comments sections to those posts were closed. To those commenters, I'm sorry, but the hostile, infantile, potty-mouthed Left turned the comments sections into a room full of obscenity-screaming crazies and I'm not required to allow that on my blog. To those of you who sent supportive emails - and there have been many - I thank you. We will fight on. You can join the fight here.
Posted by Bill in War on Terror. Permalink
February 27, 2008Not In Position to KnowBarack Obama: Naive about Al Qaeda in Iraq. Though, to be fair, Iraq probably wasn't a big issue before the Illinois state senate, where Obama was in office back when such issues were being decided.
Posted by Bill in War on Terror. Permalink
Thought For The Day"I can't spare the man. He fights." - President Abraham Lincoln, to the critics of Gen. Ulysses S. Grant. Like an army that doesn't fight, a political party must fight or it can't win.
Posted by Bill in America the Beautiful. Permalink
What's In A Name?The Tennessee capital press corps has apparently just discovered a Tennessee Republican Party press release that they previously ignored when it was issued two days ago. Apparently, using Barack Hussein Obama's middle name is a no-no. The TN GOP received back-to-back phone calls minutes ago from reporters for the Chattanooga Times-Free Press and the Nashville City Paper, asking the same basic questions, all of which ignored the main point of the press release, which is that Barack Hussein Obama is not a friend of Israel. One of Obama's foreign policy advisers, Robert Malley, is anti-Israel and pro-Hamas. Hamas is an Iranian-funded Islamist terror organization dedicated to the eradication of Israel. Malley thinks we should do support Hamas. Malley is advising Obama on Middle East policy. Did the media cover that? Ask about that? No. They fixated on Obama's middle name. Apparently, a story post at NashvillePost.com sparked the calls. The story is headlinedMcCain apology raises questions about state GOP, but NashvillePost.com didn't bother to actually pose those questions to the Tennessee Republican Party. No, they went and interviewed Democrats. Silly, of course. Run a Lexis-Nexis search for the number of times the media has used Hillary Rodham Clinton's middle name, often to underscore her feminist leanings and independence from her husband. Do a search for how many times during the 1988 and 1992 campaigns the media called the first George Bush "George Herbert Walker Bush," to underscore the media's protrayal of Bush as a preppie elitist. Ditto the media's reference to Dan Quayle as "J. Danforth Quayle." Don't looking for the media to show any consistency or logic in this, because it ain't there. Update: It's gone national. Fox News Channel. XM Satellite Radio. JTA. Daily Kos. Update: Obama's Wikipedia page uses his middle name.
Posted by Bill in Campaign Season. Permalink
Great LossThe great William F. Buckley Jr. has died. The Vision ThingWith Democrat candidates running around making promises to usher in the era of government-subsidized "universal healthcare," it's an open question whether they truly understand basic economics. For example, why is the cost of Lasik corrective eye surgery coming down while the cost of most all other healthcare going up? Sally Pipes explains. Barack, Hillary and "Minister Farrakhan"Did Barack Obama blow his "Sister Souljah" moment in last night's debate with Sen. Clinton? Did Clinton then blow her chance to make him pay for it? Fans of debate tactics and language may be debating that question for a long time. Talk is Cheap.
Vaughn is like a lot of Democrats who claim to be pro-life - he's pro-life on the campaign trail, pro-life in his speeches, and pro-life in his rhetoric, but not pro-life in action, when it counts. To put it another way: What has Rep. Vaughn ever done to actually help pro-life legislation pass in the Tennessee legislature? Nothing. What has he done to stop pro-life legislation from passing? Plenty, starting with voting for Jimmy Naifeh for House Speaker. Naifeh, another Democrat who claims to be pro-life but routinely sends pro-life legislation to be killed in a specially chosen House subcommittee. Vaughn thus puts partisanship ahead of his pro-life views - and nevermore so than Monday night and Tuesday morning at the state capitol. Monday night Vaughn asked to be a co-sponsor of the House version of Senate Joint Resolution 127, a proposed constitutional amendment that would - if passed by the legislature and approved by voters - write into the state constitution a provision that nothing in the constitution can be interpreted by judges as creating or protecting a right to abortion. The amendment is necessary because in 2000, in the case Planned Parenthood v. Sundquist, the state Supreme Court - stacked with unelected liberal judges - struck down commonsense provisions like parental notification, informed consent and a waiting period. The SJR 127 amendment would reverse that and leave abortion policy in the hands of the people's legislature rather than in the hands of a few liberal and unelected judges. It has passed the state Senate with an overwhelming majority vote, but in the House, Speaker Jimmy Naifeh routinely sends pro-life legislation to die in an obscure House subcommittee whose sole purpose seems to be to give the legislature's most rabidly pro-abortion female Democrats a subcommittee of their own where they can kill pro-life legislation. Thus, the House version of SJR 127 was doomed from the start, and everyone - including Rep. Vaughn - knew it Monday night when Vaughn, who is known for being pro-life, asked the House sponsor to sign on as a co-sponsor. It was pure cynical partisan theater. Rep. Vaughn - and other Democrats who claim to be pro-life - want to sign on as co-sponsors to give themselves political cover, knowing the subcommittee would kill the legislation and it would never come to a floor vote. Most political observers in Nashville believe SJR 127 would pass the House by a large margin if Naifeh were to allow it to come to a floor vote. A floor vote is never going to happen because the Democrat leadership in the House does not want a pro-life constitutional amendment on the ballot statewide in Tennessee ever, fearing it would bring a lot of social conservatives to the polls and threaten Democrats' majority. Democrat legislators like Vaughn who want voters back home in their districts to believe they are pro-life want to sign on as co-sponsors for political cover, so they can campaign claiming to have co-sponsored pro-life legislation, all the while knowing Naifeh will abort the legislation in the subcommittee created for that very purpose. The House sponsor of SJR 127 is willing to let "pro-life Democrats" sign on as co-sponsors if and when the bill reaches the House floor. That makes political sense - if they can't sign on as co-sponsors for political cover just before Naifeh kills the bill, they might actually work to pressure Naifeh to let the bill come to the floor for a vote. The bottom line is that the legislature is full of pro-life Republicans and pro-life Democrats, but there's a difference between them. The Republican-led Senate passes pro-life legislation; the Democrat-lead House kills it. And rhetorically pro-life legislators like Democrat Nathan Vaughn enable the pro-choice Democrat leadership to kill the legislation by electing Jimmy Naifeh as House Speaker every two years. Rep. Vaughn may, in his soul, be pro-life. He may give pro-life speeches. He may pray every night to God to end abortion. But when push comes to shove - when Rep. Vaughn is faced every two years with casting a meaningful vote that affects the future of pro-life legislation - he votes for Jimmy Naifeh for Speaker. The vote for Naifeh for Speaker is the first vote Vaughn cast at the opening of the current General Assembly, and it was a pro-abortion vote. And Speaker Naifeh then sets about to kill the pro-life legislation that Vaughn says he supports. Talk is cheap. Rep. Vaughn hasn't done a blessed thing in the legislature to be actively pro-life. And he has done MUCH to harm the pro-life cause, including vote for Naifeh for Speaker as Naifeh routinely executes all pro-life legislation. He did not even go to the subcommittee hearing Tuesday to urge his fellow legislators to pass the resolution and allow it to go to the House floor for a vote. He may claim to be pro-life. He may say all the right words to all the right people, but actions matter more than words, and when it came time to act, Rep. Vaughn failed to back his words with action. He is pro-life except when it counts - just like a lot of "pro-life" Democrats in the Tennessee General Assembly. Pro-life voters need to understand this clearly: If you vote this fall for pro-life Democrats for the state House, you are undermining the pro-life cause because they will vote for Jimmy Naifeh for speaker, again, and he will send pro-life legislation to die in his subcommittee guillotine. In Tennessee a vote for a pro-life Democrat for the state House is a pro-abortion vote. Postscript: A single line jumped out at me over and over as I read the Dr. Seuss classic Horton Hears a Who to my son at bedtime last night: "People are people, no matter how small."If you haven't read it, the book tells the tale of Horton, an elephant who risks everything to protect the tiny people of Whoville against those who - risking nothing of their own - threaten Whoville with destruction. 500,000 of Tennessee's smallest, most helpless and vulnerable people have been killed in the state's abortion mills since 1978, according to Tennessee Department of Health data. That's almost equal to the the population of Nashville-Davidson County. Many of those abortions have been subsidized by an annual state budget appropriation for Planned Parenthood, the state's largest abortion provider. Half a million dead babies. That's what electing "pro-life Democrats" gets you.
February 26, 2008Dirty MoneyMy post earlier today regarding former Tennessee Democrat Party chairman Bob Tuke entering the race for the U.S. Senate prompted a reader to remind me of a story involving Tuke, the TDP and dirty money. Back in 2006 the Tennessee Democratic Party accepted more than $50,000 from a corporate CEO who was busy looting retirement funds managed by his company, 1Point Solutions. Tuke expressly refused to return the money - no surprise, given the company had deep ties to the Bredesen administration, the Bredesen 2006 re-election campaign and Tennessee Democratic Party. Tuke's successor at the TDP has, likewise, refused to return more than $50,000 accepted from convicted felon Norman Hsu, who earned the money through various scams. Hsu wrote the TDP the checks while a fugitive. Not What He Had In MindWhen we let freedom ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God's children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of that old Negro spiritual, "Free at last! Free at last! Thank God almighty, we are free at last!" Somehow, I don't think bail bonds is what Martin Luther King had in mind when he spoke those famous words to cap his stirring "I Have a Dream" speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial on August 23, 1963. Photo snapped with a cell phone, Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2007, in downtown Franklin, TN. The Long WarToday is the 15th anniversary of an event that, in hindsight, should have been more of a wake-up call than it was. Today is the 15th anniversary of the first attack on the World Trade Center by the Islamic jihadists. It was their declaration of war on us. Unfortunately, the Clinton administration treated it like a criminal matter rather than the act of war that it was, and so the United States did not begin to wage war against the Islamic terrorists until after the second attack on the WTC. A Promotion for the CaptainEd Morrissey, writer of the highly successful Captain's Quarters blog, is moving his bloggery to Michelle Malkin's even more successful Hot Air, where he'll blog alongside Malkin and the Allahpundit. Captain's Quarters was a high-impact conservative blog, as is Hot Air. Morrissey will be replacing Bryan Preston, who has left to take a position as a producer for Laura Ingraham. Details here. Tuke & Tinker
When I asked Tuke, off air, Feb 15 during a taping of Bob Mueller's WKRN show Inside Politics about Tinker and the flier, he said he was unaware of the incident. Tuke is planning to run for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Lamar Alexander. QuestionsAs former Tennessee Democrat Party chairman Bob Tuke prepares to announce that he's going to run for the U.S. Senate seat currently held, firmly, by Lamar Alexander, I'm reminded of a strange incident from 2004 where Tuke, on a radio show, seemed to imply he knew beforehand that CBS was about to smear President Bush with some documents regarding Bush's National Guard service. The documents proved later to be fakes. Frauds. Forgeries. I chronicled the whole incident here back in Sept. 2004. The post is still the numero uno search result if you Google for "Bob Tuke" - even above the TDP's website.
February 25, 2008The Discovery NetworkEver wonder, when you're reading a news story about the presidential race, who some of those folks are who are advising Obama and Clinton? Ever wondered about their history, their connections and their paper trail? Wonder no more - know more, by visiting DiscoverTheNetworks.org.
February 24, 2008Honesty in Budgeting
Don't be surprised if the Democrat leadership in the House changes the rules to require the video system be shut off as soon as the gavel comes down to end committee meetings and floor sessions. Tuke vs. AlexanderIn a story about former Tennessee Democrat Party chairman Bob Tuke running for the U.S. Senate against Republican Lamar Alexander, Tennessean writer Bonna Johnson says Tuke hopes "to ride a wave of Obama-mentum and an electorate fed up with a failing economy." The economy isn't failing. Has it hit a rough patch? For certain. The subprime mortgage crisis, though it affects about 2 percent of all current mortgages, has put a dent in the housing market. But employment remains strong and inflation remains low. Nationally, the economy has not yet suffered one month of negative growth, much less the two consecutive quarters (six months) that are required before the economy can be said to be in recession. In Tennessee, most economic signs remain reasonably healthy. Most economists predict the national economy will continue to grow in 2008, albeit at a slower pace than in the five previous years of the economic boom that started with the passage of the first of the Bush tax cuts. And therein lies Tuke's primary weak spot. He's an Obama supporter. Obama is promising all sorts of new spending that will require big tax increases. If Obama wins the White House, the Bush tax cuts - which slashed taxes for all taxpayers including the middle class and removed tens of millions of lower-income taxpayers from the income tax rolls entirely - will expire. The resulting tax increases will make it all the more difficult to keep the economy growing. It will also make things more difficult, economically, for taxpayers who are most definitely not "the rich" that Democrat rhetoric will target. If the Democrats do not extend the Bush tax cuts, a single mother of two children making $40,000 a year will have her income tax burden increase by $1,800 annually. That's $150 a month, which might equal that mother's day care bill for one child, or her electric bill or the cost of putting fuel in her car. In short, Tuke is likely to campaign claiming the economy is collapsing and the solution to fixing it is big tax hikes. Neither is true. Most folks know that. And that's why Lamar is going beat Tuke like a drum. Tuke knows he's going to lose, of course. The mere mention in the Tennessean story that he's aiming to raise $5 million for the race tells you he isn't expecting to win. It would take at least $10 million to make a serious race. But Tuke isn't running to win. He's running to keep Alexander from rolling up a huge victory margin, in order to boost Obama's thin chances of winning Tennessee and also to try to prevent an Alexander landslide from carrying Republican candidates to victory in other races on the ballot, especially in state legislative races.
February 23, 2008Smearing McCainThis was entirely predictable. Conservatives have disagreements with John McCain, but they loathe the The New York Times. So when the NYT publishes a smear piece written to the journalistic standards of the worst supermarket tabloids, a surge in support for McCain was virtually guaranteed.
February 22, 2008New York to Los Angeles on Three Tanks of Fuel
February 21, 2008Hope and ChangeRegarding Barack Obama's mantra of "Change" and "Hope" : "All change is not growth, as all movement is not forward." - American novelist Ellen Glasgow "But what is Hope? Nothing but the paint on the face of Existence; the least touch of truth rubs it off, and then we see what a hollow-cheeked harlot we have got hold of." - British poet Lord Byron "Don't go changin', to try and please me..." - American songwriter, performer and piano man William Joel
February 20, 2008The Obama TaxIf Barack Obama manages to get elected president, American taxpayers can look forward to paying a trillion dollars in additional taxes in the next decade to fund a huge increase in foreign aid, writes James Pethokoukis at U.S. News. TN Dems Quote Famous Republican
Looking For a Fresh Angle on the Ballroom Story?
Incumbent Democrats who want Gov. Bredesen to help in their re-election fund-raising and campaigning later this year will obviously be reluctant to go on the record with opposition to the project, so to get an accurate count you should make it just a head-count poll, with no legislators' names attached to opposition to or support for the project. It shouldn't take more than a couple hours to get an answer from most of the 132 legislators. The people of Tennessee have a right to know. Playpen Politics
CON Job?
February 19, 2008Ballroom Press Conference Video
Or you can view it here:
Part 1, Part 2 Here is the Tennessee Republican Party's statement issued shortly after the press conference. Update: WSMV Channel 4 News had a good story on the press conference and controversy. Just Another Example of Supply and DemandRegarding the subprime mortgage crisis that I wrote about yesterday, Ilya Somin at The Volokh Conspiracy comments on new research showing that restrictive zoning and other government land-use restrictions have played a major role in causing the subprime mortgage crisis. "Zoning helped cause the crisis in two ways: by artificially inflating the price of real estate, and by increasing the likelihood of a 'boom-bust' cycle in real estate prices," Somin writes. ... Portland, Oregon, is a prime example of how restrictive land use policies drive up housing prices. Several years ago, the "smart growth" anti-sprawl movement captured the minds of Portland's political elites and they limited the growth of suburban development via a "smart growth" urban boundary, outside which land could not be subdivided into plots smaller than 5 acres. The result was housing prices in the city shot sky high and created an acute shortage of affordable housing. This didn't hurt the well-off, as they could merely go outside the "urban growth" boundary and buy 5 acres and build a house. The poor and lower-income working class, however, were greatly impacted as a larger and larger share of their limited resources was consumed by housing costs, or they had to move into crappier homes because that's all they could afford. Portland's answer wasn't to cancel the "smart growth" plan that was forcing up housing prices by placing an artificial limit on the available supply of developable land, but to use taxes to subsidize affordable housing. Taxes, I should add, that increased the cost of buying a house in Portland. Next Year in HavanaWhen I read the news this morning that Fidel Castro, who has kept the Cuban people imprisioned in 1959 for half a century, has decided to retire, one of the first people I thought of was Carrie Ferguson Weir, a former Tennessean reporter and Cuban-American now running Los Pollitos Dicen, a company that markets Latino-themed apparel for babies and toddlers, and blogging at Bilingual in the Boonies. Sure enough, she has some thoughts... And some good news. From Hell to ParadisePray for the people of Cuba, that they may one day receive the freedom, democracy and economic progress that Castro has long denied them. Dead NewspapersTomorrow marks the 10th anniversary of the death of the Nashville Banner, as I mentioned last week. I also mentioned that I had 10 copies of the final final edition available. Now I have six. Email me at bill-at-billhobbs-dot-com if you are interested in having one. Also, I have a last-day edition of the Richmond, Va., News Leader, which died May 31, 1992, and was combined with the Richmond Times Dispatch, along with the June 1, 1992, edition of the Times Dispatch, which ballyhoos the debut of the "new" combined paper. It would make a nice framed set if you're connected with the Richmond journalism community. I also have a last-day edition of The Anchorage Times (June 3, 1992), the Knoxville Journal (Dec. 31, 1991), and the Spokane Chronicle (July 31, 1992). All of them are in perfect condition, having sat in a box ever since I got them. (The Spokane Chronicle does have a white postal address sticker on the top left corner, but it probably can be steamed off.) All are available for purchase. 1992 was a bad year for newspapers - newspapers were going the way of the dodo bird long before the Internet came along. Global Warming Update"January was Wicked Cold." Colder planet-wide. And the Arctic ice is growing and thickening.
February 18, 2008Home $weet HomeThe Nashville City Paper reports today that Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tennessee, is co-sponsoring legislation that would give a $15,000 tax credit to anyone purchasing a newly constructed home, a foreclosed home or a home where foreclosure is pending. The goal: boost the troubled housing market, which is somewhat of a drag on the economy right now. I'm not sure why the City Paper is covering this story today - Alexander's office issued the press release Jan. 31. From that release: "Providing Americans with this $15,000 tax credit over three years would provide a much-needed boost to the housing market and the economy," Alexander said. "This incentive will restore confidence in the housing market while preventing a housing disaster by reducing the number of unsold and foreclosed homes on the market that threaten to lessen home values and reduce homeowner equity."Alexander's trying to do a good thing here to boost falling real estate prices, which are a drag on the economy, but I think you'd get a bigger boost if the tax credit was available on all homes, not just certain homes. Update: The foreclosure wave is primarily hitting the subprime mortgage market. Subprime loans are loans made to people with sub-par credit, often with low initial monthly payments that, under the terms of the contract that the buyer knowingly signed, ballooned to much-larger payments in a few years. Subprime mortgages tend to be adjustable-rate or interest-only adjustable-rate loans. According to a fact sheet (PDF) published in the third quarter of 2007 by the Mortgage Bankers Association, 35 percent of homeowners own their home outright; 48 percent are in fixed-rate mortgages. Only 15 percent of homeowners have adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM). Only 5 percent of homeowners are nonprime borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages. And only about 1.7 percent of all loans are in the foreclosure process. Says the MBA: Historically, delinquency rates tend to peak in the first three to five years after origination. Because more than half of outstanding loans are less than five years old, it stands to reason delinquency and foreclosure rates may rise as they age.Translation: We had a wave of home-buying a few years back (thanks to the vibrant Bush economy, I might add), and this foreclosure wave was entirely predictable as there is always a small percentage of home-buyers who wind up being unable to afford the purchase they made. Most mortgages aren't subprime, most homes are not being foreclosed on, and most mortgagees have fixed-rate mortgages, making them less likely to be forced into a foreclosure situation. The "mortgage crisis" is really just a shakeout of some bad deals in one very small corner of the overall mortgage market. A tax credit would make those homes more attractive to buyers. But, then, so will their falling prices. That's the way it always works. A few years ago, Nashville was a buyer's market for houses, with homes sitting unsold for months, and desperate sellers dropping prices like mad. 18 months later, it had flipped completely to a sellers' market, with houses selling for their asking price or higher, often days or even hours after they hit the market. This year's mortgage crisis-induced housing slump is creating the next buyer's market, which in turn will fuel another record-setting wave of home-buying, creating a seller's market and sparking more new home construction. And it will happen sooner than you think. Ballroom Update
All Tangled UpI took some time today to review what all I pay currently for land-line telephone service, satellite television and high-speed Internet service, in order to compare it to bundled packages available from competitors such as Comcast, and in addition to realizing I'm way overpaying, I found something else rather interesting. Last month, we used our AT&T long distance service - for which we pay $23.99 per month as part of a bundled package - to make a total of just 12 minutes of long-distance calls. That works out to $2 per minute. We generally use our cellphones for long-distance calls. In fact, I rarely use the land-line phone at all anymore, even if I'm sitting at my desk in my home office, a mere 18 inches from the phone, I generally pull out the cell phone. I'm thinking it's time to ditch the land-line phone entirely, though that will make the price of my BellSouth DSL and DirecTV go up as they won't be part of a bundled service anymore. But the bundle-based discounts on those total just $19.95 per month. And our total local/long distance land-line service with AT&T costs $50.99 per month (not including taxes.) There's also a $5.11 "Tennessee Satellite Privilege Tax" that I never realized existed until today. (Is there a corresponding cable tax?) Perhaps Comcast for TV and Internet is the way to go. They currently have an Internet/Cable bundle that's $59.99 a month for the first 12 months, rising to $95.45 per month after that. It would still be cheaper than what we're paying now. And we could keep our old landline phone number by simply paying $10 a month to add it as a third number on our cell phone account. We never use all our minutes, and routinely have a few thousand "rollover" minutes. Anybody out there have any advice? Update A reader suggested the Verizon FIOS service - TV, Internet, phone and wireless - as a good alternative, but it isn't available where I live. I'm coinsider a Voice over Internet Protocol (VOIP) option - Lingo - which would be a low-cost alternative to AT&T, and going with Comcast for TV and 'net. Hey, Neighbor...I'd love to see Nashville get this potential GM test project. Mainly because I want one of these. Far-fetched? Probably. But we do have a GM plant nearby... Tennessee Democrats Discover Water
That's right, six years after the Tennessee Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations (TACIR) put the total water infrastructure needs statewide at $2.83 billion, and three years after the Tennessee Department of Environment & Conservation counted more than 112,000 households across Tennessee that lack access to a public water system - and put the cost of fixing that problem at $1.7 billion - Gov. Phil Bredesen and House and Senate Democrats have suddenly discovered the water problem. It's about time, as TACIR estimated late last year that the total water infrastructure needs statewide have risen 13 percent, to $3.19 billion, an increase of $364 million. Until now, the Bredesen administration's response to the state's deficient water infrastructure has been, quite literally, a drop in the bucket. The Bredesen administration put less than $2 million into the state's Drinking Water State Revolving Fund - which local governments can borrow from to finance improvements - in fiscal year 2006. All of these facts were included in a press release issued by the Tennessee Republican Party on Nov. 7, 2007. Within two weeks, Gov. Bredesen - who had previously said local water infrastructure was not the state's responsibility - was suddenly running all over Tennessee handing out federally-funded Community Block Development Grants for water projects. And now a number of top Democrats in the legislature are suddenly talking about water. Turns out, you can lead donkeys to water - and make 'em drink! Hankerin' For Mr. Cooper's Seat
Sebourn's issues page has an interesting twist: He not only tells you his basic stands on various big issues - taxes, immigration, abortion and more - he also states, specifically, "What I Will Do" on each of those issues. There are other potential candidates for the Republican nomination for the 14th District senate seat but, so far, Sebourn is the only to officially jump into the race that I'm aware of. The Tennessee Republican Primary does not take sides in a primary. Balance of Power
Actually, changes of the Republican Party taking a majority in the state House are growing. Democrats currently hold a 53-46 edge, so Republicans need to pick up just four seats to gain a majority. The recent announcement by two Democrats, Frank Buck of Dowelltown and John D. Hood of Murfreesboro, that they are not seeking re-election, opens up two districts in which a Republican win is possible, and the Tennessee GOP has a good chance to knock of at least two other incumbent Democrats in districts where Democrats do not greatly outnumber Republicans.
February 17, 2008Laffer UnpluggedThe Tennessean has an interview with Arthur Laffer, the economist whose supply-side economic theories lead the Reagan administration to cut taxes - leading to a major economic boom. Laffer lives in Nashville now, having fled high-tax California a few years ago. Only One Drink
While there are multiple proposals for strengthening the state's drunken driving laws pending in the Legislature, Gov. Phil Bredesen says he decided to set priorities and focus on just one.Why won't Bredesen back those proposals, too? Is it because of money? Is he saying that we "have to pick" because these proposals cost money? If so, he's misleading you. Some of the DUI bills that have been killed, like tougher penalties and the "pass the bottle" bill actually don't cost the state money. They actually bring money into the state from the federal government. This is called a positive fiscal note. The fed is withholding transportation money because Tennessee won't pass tougher DUI laws. You would think with all the gnashing of teeth we hear about there not being enough money for road building that the Gov would be all for these changes. I guess toll roads or raising the price of gas even higher are a more pleasant idea for him.Oh, so true. Two Good Bills
February 16, 2008Worshipping a False GodEd Morrissey slams a speech from Michelle Obama:: It's the notion that only Barack Obama can save our souls that is the most offensive part of the speech, by far. Government doesn't exist to save souls; it exists to ensure domestic tranquility and provide for the common defense. If I feel my soul needs saving, the very last place I'd look (in the US) for a savior would be Washington DC or Capitol Hill. I'll trust God and Jesus Christ with my soul, and I'm not going to mistake Barack Obama for either one.Amen, brother, preach it. The Blogs of HazzardKnoxville journalist Jack Lail has some thought about bloggers and Boss Hogg. Stupidity KillsAssociated Press: Colleges feel helpless to prevent shootings. And yet they aren't willing to let faculty, staff and students who have gun carry permits to go armed in self-defense. As long as the criminal element knows that campuses are, essentially, undefended, on-campus shooting sprees by deranged individuals are going to continue to happen. Democrats Put Politics Before National SecurityRich Galen explains why the Democrats are wrong to stall on passing the FISA legislation - and, for those of you who don't know what FISA is, he explains that, too. Also, the Tennessee Republican Party issued a statement yesterday regarding FISA and the failure of the Democrats in Tennessee's Congressional delegation to put national security before politics. It isn't posted on the TNGOP.org website yet, so I've included the text in the extended portion of this blog entry. TENNESSEE DEMOCRATS PLAY POLITICAL GAMES WITH VITAL NATIONAL SECURITY LEGISLATIONDon't bet on it, though.
February 15, 2008Looking Back at the Banner Years
I moved back to Nashville in 1988, armed with a journalism degree, a year of experience at a Texas newspaper, and a singular goal: to work for the Nashville Banner, which I had always enjoyed reading when I was a college student here in the mid-80s.. In the 10 years that followed, I would work for the Clarksville Leaf-Chronicle, the Nashville Business Journal, and The Tennessean - and freelance for a dozen or more publications here locally and around the country. The Banner is about the only publication in town that I never worked for. But I read it every day, and was sad, though not surprised, to learn 10 years ago tomorrow of its impending demise. Now would be a great time to mention that I have about 10 copies of the last-day issue of the Banner - and they are in perfect condition, having sat untouched in a closed box since that day, when I bought them at a long-ago-closed coffee shop in downtown Nashville's Arcade. I'm willing to part with a few of them, for a reasonable price. Just email me at bill-at-billhobbs.com. Update: Only Primary ColorsDuncan Mansfield's AP wrap-up on the Republican presidential primary in Tennessee looks at the role of religion, race, gender and regional roots in voters' choices. Long Term Care Update
Also, the AP ran a story on it, but the only place I could find it, on the website of the Memphis Daily News, was a truncated version of the much longer - and better - story that the AP actually put on the state wire. The truncated version did not include the comments from Tennessee Republican Party Chairman Robin Smith responding to the governor's proposal: State Republican Party Chairwoman Robin Smith offered unexpected praise for Bredesen's comments.For the life of me, I can't figure out why a newspaper website carries only part of a wire story. In the print edition, sure - there is a limited "news hole" in any given edition of a newspaper, and stories have to be cut to fit. And AP stories are structured to be easily snipped from the bottom up. But, online, there is no limit to the available space on a web page, and pixels and server space and bandwidth are almost infinitely less expensive than ink, newsprint and printing presses. (I also can't figure out why newspaper website stories don't link to press releases and other documents that they mention - so that readers can decide for themselves if the newspaper story's summary is enough information or if they want to read the whole press release or document for themselves. Essentially, structure the online version of a story as if it were a blog post. Sure, I'd like it if they linked to the press releases I issue for the clients and organizations I represent, but, as a news consumer, I'd like it if they linked to such documents even from clients and organizations I don't work for. A newspaper that routinely did that would, in my estimation, become a much more valuable and popular resource for its readers by serving as both news summarizer and information guide.)
February 14, 2008Bredesen Comes Around to GOP Position on Home-Based Care
The governor talked about how home-based care is less costly, and more preferable for most elderly people. "People simply need more choices," Bredesen said. "In the months ahead we're going to fundamentally restructure how our state deals with long-term care in the TennCare program." Noting that under the current system, 98 percent of state dollars for elderly care go to nursing home care, Bredesen said the lack of home-base care options means "We end up forcing people into nursing homes who would prefer to remain in their own homes." Bredesen is absolutely correct. And better late than never. Advocacy groups have long urged the state put more dollars into home-based care options, and Republican state Sen. Diane Black of Gallatin has been the leading voice in the state legislature for doing just that for the past three years. Home and Community-Based Services (HCBS) is universally acknowledged to be much less expensive than nursing home care - but under Bredesen's watch less than 2 percent of the more than $1 billion that Tennessee spends (including federal dollars) on long-term care for the poor, elderly and disabled goes to HCBS. That's the lowest rate of any state in the country. The rest goes to nursing homes - the most expensive form of care. None goes to assisted-living, which is an intermediate step between HCBS care and nursing home, and costs less than nursing home care. Sen. Black's legislation would significantly increase the use of in-home health care for the state's Medicaid-eligible elderly population - which would both lower health care costs for the state and increased care alternatives to nursing homes for the state's elderly and disabled, but the governor, despite his legendary health care business expertise, has shown no interest in it over the five years he has been in office. In a press release from the Tennessee Republican Party last year, Sen. Black criticized the governor's inattention to the issue. The good news: Bredesen has changed his mind and now agrees with Sen. Black and the Republicans on this issue. Update: Bredesen's promised forthcoming legislation may not be necessary - the state Senate is already moving two bills toward passage that address the same issue. A press release out this morning has the details: State Senators moved passage of two key health care bills this week aimed at helping elderly or disabled Tennesseans receive more options in their health care, including staying in their homes for as long as possible. The long term care legislation is part of a series of bills aiming to help citizens "age in place."The full press release has much more detail and background. Update: Tennessee Republican Party press release on the above: Governor Shifts To Republican Position On Long-Term Care Reform
February 13, 2008Bredesen Sees Gas Tax Ahead
Why Taxpayers MigrateState's tax rates appear to play a role in the migration of Americans from some states to others, says the Wall Street Journal. Politicians who think taxes don't matter might want to explain the Dakotas. North Dakota ranked second worst in out-migration last year, while South Dakota ranked in the top 10 as a destination. The two are similar in most regards, with one large difference: North Dakota has an income tax and South Dakota doesn't.There's even an intriguing mention of Nashville in the piece. The Munday MessageThis is "Mike." Mike showed up at a kickoff event at the Campbell County Courthouse for Ken Yager, the Republican former Roane County Executive who is running for the 12th District state Senate seat being vacated by Democrat state Sen. Tommy Kilby, who is retiring. Yager, who served more than 24 years as the Roane County executive, kicked off his campaign with events in all six counties in the 12th district Monday. Mike tagged along to some of the events to videotape things. According to multiple witnesses, Mike identified himself as "Mike," and said he was a "Vanderbilt grad student" who was there "studying local politics." Mike's real name is Wade Munday, and he's the communications director for the Tennessee Democrat Party. And yes he is wearing a Ken Yager sticker. Munday was hired in February 2007 by the TDP. Previously he worked as a research analyst for Fletcher, Rowley, Chao, and Riddle, Inc., a Nashville Democrat campaign consulting firm with a reputation for slashing attack ads, below-the-belt tactics and a heavy reliance on negative campaigning. At the time he was hired by the TDP, Munday was reported to also be pursuing a Masters of Divinity degree from Vanderbilt University - not studying politics. And his name ain't Mike. As the campaign season heats up, candidates and activists of both parties won't be surprised to see folks from the opposition showing up at their events. Both sides will use "trackers," often armed with video cameras, to record their opponents, hoping to gather some bit of info or video to use against that candidate in the campaign. It's all part of modern politics and it's perfectly fair and fine. But lying about your identity isn't. Update: Wade Munday called. Says he never said his name was Mike. Multiple witnesses say otherwise. Bredesen Longs For Higher Gas Tax
Bredesen also spoke about the eventual need for a possible increase to the 22-cent per gallon gas tax to help pay for roads. "I don't think it will happen this year," he said.But he didn't rule it out. The previous gas tax was enacted in 1989, but rising construction costs have made it difficult for the Tennessee Department of Transportation to keep up with needed road projects, Bredesen said.Also making it difficult for TDOT to keep up with needed road projects: Bredesen's decision to divert tens of millions of dollars in gas tax revenue from the road fund to the general fund. The governor said restructuring the gas tax will take a bipartisan effort by the Tennessee General Assembly. "I think everyone has an interest in roads being completed," he said.Sounds to me like Bredesen is slowly laying the foundation for seeking a gas tax increase before he leaves office, or for a push to greatly expand the use of tolls to fund road and bridge projects. The Knoxville News Sentinel reported on that latter possibility recently: Tennessee transportation officials are facing a shortfall of more than $5 billion in the next eight to 10 years because of stagnant fuel revenues and skyrocketing construction costs.$261 million in fuel tax revenue collected by the state of Tennessee each year is being diverted away from roads. You may have thought that all those gas taxes you paid every time you pumped fuel into your vehicle were being used to provide and maintain the roads, but 40 percent of the gas tax revenue is diverted away from funding the state's road needs. Over eight to 10 years - the time period in which Nicely says TDOT faces a shortfall of more than $5 billion - that adds up to more than $2 billion. Better Late than Never
A Long, Long Time Ago...
The last time Buck wasn't on the ballot was the year 1970, the year that Paul McCartney announced the Beatles had disbanded. Also that year, the Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl 4, President Richard Nixon sent the troops into Cambodia, four students were shot at an anti-Vietnam War protest at Kent State, the Ford Pinto made its debut, as did Garry Trudeau's comic strip Doonesbury, the first Earth Day was celebrated, the ill-fated Apollo 13 lunar mission was launched, and construction workers topped out the North Tower of the World Trade Center at 1,368 feet, making it the tallest building in the world. I was six. The 40th House District includes Macon, Smith and DeKalb counties. In 2006, Buck survived a strong challenge from Republican Terri Lynn Weaver. She got 42 percent of the vote. Buck got 58 percent, but his vote total of 9,650 was 2,424 votes fewer than fellow Democrat Phil Bredesen got in the district en route to being re-elected with 70 percent of the vote statewide. House District 40 is a definite pick-up opportunity for Republicans, who are just four seats shy of taking a majority in the state House. Weaver plans to run again. Longtime readers of my blog know I've had nice things to say about Rep. Buck in the past. A conservate Democrat, Buck was, by far, one of the best Democrats in the state House. He opposed the income tax when Democrat House Speaker Jimmy Naifeh pushed it to a vote in 2002, but Buck made his biggest impact with his career-long focus on legislative ethics. Buck was championing ethics reform long before the Tennessee Waltz investigation forced the Bredesen administration and the House Democrat leadership to focus on it too. I wish Rep. Buck only the best in his retirement from the legislature.
February 12, 2008The Happy PartyA story in last Saturday's Washington Post explores an interesting phenomenon: On average, Republicans are happier than Democrats. A 2006 Pew Research poll found that 45 percent of Republicans describe themselves as “very happy,” compared with only 30 percent of Democrats (and 29 percent of independents). This is a sizable gap and a remarkably consistent one, too. Republicans have been happier than Democrats every year since the General Social Survey, conducted biannually by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, began asking about happiness in 1972.The whole article is worth reading, but I'll give you two more excerpts: The most obvious place to look for an explanation is, of course, with money. Wealthy people are marginally happier than poor ones, and Republicans, according to some surveys, tend to be wealthier than Democrats, so that must be why they're happier, right? Nice try, but no dice. Even after adjusting for differences in income, the Pew researchers still found a marked happiness gap: Poor Republicans are, on average, happier than poor Democrats, and wealthy Republicans are happier than wealthy Democrats.And this tantalizing tidbit... If this isn't depressing enough for liberals, it turns out that some of their own pet policies are to blame for their unhappiness. Once in power, Democrats tend to focus on issues that, according to the science of happiness, have little effect on our contentment -- income equality, for instance, and racial diversity. Neither is linked to greater happiness.In my experience, happier people tend to gravitate toward Republicanism. Starbucks to Offer Free-ish Wi-FiCustomers at Starbucks across the nation will have free wireless access later this year, through a deal with AT&T. Well, sort of "free." You'll have to have an "active Starbucks gift card" to get 2 hours of free wi-fi access per day. Details here. Suing a BlogA Nashville couple is suing bloggers who they say libeled them on a blog. I've never heard of the blog or know anything about the case, but there are a few basic things to know about libel law. 1. Truth is an absolute defense. 2. Opinion, no matter how derogatory, is protected by the First Amendment. 3. It is very difficult for public figures to win libel cases.
February 11, 2008The Great DivideSusan Estrich - the former Mike Dukakis campaign strategist - looks at latent racism in the Democratic Party and the effect it is having on Barack Obama's campaign results. Trial Lawyers Still Love Briley
The trial lawyers' PAC, Lawyers Involved for Tennessee, gave Briley $5,000 in campaign contributions through two separate installments last year after Briley's DUI and alleged evading arrest incident. | ||||||||||