September 14, 2007

Why Clement Lost

Here's a pretty good analysis of why former congressman Bob Clement lost the Nashville mayoral race, though I disagree somewhat with the blogger's Lesson #2 in which he asserts that "Anti-Tax pledges will get you nowhere in Nashville." ...

While it is true that Nashville, as a heavily Democratic town, is not as "anti-tax" as other parts of the state, it also is true that 77 percent of Nashville voters just one year ago voted to approve a city charter amendment giving themselves the authority to accept or reject (most) property tax increases via referendums, a power they already have over the local sales tax. While that doesn't mean 77 percent of Nashvillians are anti-tax, it does mean they want more control over their tax rates.

The writer of the analysis seems to think that Clement lost in part because he ran on an anti-tax message while eventual winner Karl Dean didn't. But Dean didn't run on platform of calling for higher taxes - in fact, while he derided the "pledge" as a gimmick, he repeatedly sought to assure voters that he had every intention of avoiding tax increases, and that he would abide by the charter amendment allowing voters to vote on (most) property tax increases.

My own take on how the tax issue cut for Clement is a little different. Clement ran around waving his pledge, but his record of voting for higher taxes - and the existence of wasteful taxpayer-funded boondoggles like the barely-used "Clement Landport," suggested the pledge was a mere campaign device, and one Clement likely wasn't competent to actually manage the city budget well enough to keep.

Clement's anti-tax campaign forced Dean to run ads defining Clement - accurately - as a tax-and-spender who voted early and often for higher taxes.

But his campaign nearly undercut their "Bob's a tax-raiser" message with the secondary message that Clement in Congress had voted for "Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy," which actually may have helped Bob with the small but not insignificant core of Davidson County anti-tax Republicans whom Bob needed to get close to victory.

In the end, though, it hardly matters. The charter amendment means the property tax rate won't cross $4, it's current level, without the people voting yes. And, ironically, though Dean likely is less averse than Clement to raising taxes, the voters probably chose the candidate more competent to run the city for four years without needing to raise taxes.