July 20, 2006

The Big Momentum Shift

Van Hilleary supporters woke up today to learn that their candidate in the U.S. Senate race, GOP primary, is now in third place in the three-way race, behind Ed Bryant, Hilleary's ideological twin on virtually all of the issues, and also behind poll leader Bob Corker, a moderate Republican seeking to pass himself off as a conservative.

Click the thumbnail graphic and you'll see that the polls have been turning decidedly negative for Hilleary ever since Corker began his multi-million-dollar ad blitz. But, then, Corker's poll numbers have started going south too, while Bryant's are rising. Now, with Corker dumping $1.7 million of his own money into the race to try to buy the nomination that appears to be in danger of slipping through his fingers, Hilleary supporters have a stark choice to make:

Vote for a guy who will finish third, or vote for Bryant, someone with whom Hilleary agrees on virtually all of the issues - Ed Bryant - in order to prevent Corker from winning the nomination.

Corker is spending $1.7 million of his own money on a campaign in which he has already raised and spent far more than the other two candidates combined and is at only 37 percent in the polls. Far from dominating the race, he's doing dismally given how much cash he's raised and spent, and how long he's been running.

Hilleary could seal Corker's fate - and engrave his own plaque in the Conservative Hall of Fame - by announcing, immediately, that he is pulling out of the race, and using whatever money he has left to cut and broadcast a simple ad endorsing Bryant in order to make sure the GOP nominates a truly pro-life truly fiscal conservative candidate.

The vast majority of Hilleary supporters would switch to Bryant - provided they haven't already cast their votes for Hilleary in the early voting period. By dropping out now, Hilleary could ensure that Tennessee conservatives who back either him or Bryant won't have to go to the polls in November holding their noses to vote for Corker in order to prevent the election of "Sen. Harold Ford Jr."

I echo Jay Bush, who writes:

Van Hilleary has been a good soldier for the conservative cause, but it's time for him to acknowledge that there's no way he can win the Republican primary. I want to encourage every Tennessee conservative to contact the Hilleary campaign and respectfully ask Van to withdraw, for the good of the Tennessee Republican party's future. The Hilleary campaign can be reached at 615-867-1900 or by e-mail at HQ@vanhilleary.com.

Update: There's a rumor floating around that Hilleary will drop out Friday. But there have been similar rumors before. And Hilleary was still running ads on the evening news Thursday night - make of that what you will.