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« Blogging Disaster | Main | Ka-Ching! » September 27, 2005What He Said
Here is what Bredesen said to reporters after a speech to the Nashville Rotary Club: "I'm not interested in an income tax in a second term . I don't think you need it. ... I don't think one is warranted and, frankly, I don't intend to propose one. ... I'm more convinced today than when I took office that it's not needed and that we can proceed just fine without it,"There's wiggle room in his statement - he could become "interested" if conditions change. Skeptics may recall that Bredesen's predecessor railed against the notion of an income tax in the year before his re-election too, then proposed one after he was safely elected to a second, and final, term in the governor's office. A Big-Government liberal who has a history of raising taxes, Bredesen is ideological predisposed to support a state income tax, even if he is currently opposed to it for political reasons - namely, supporting one openly would get him beat in November '06. Though the Tennessee Democratic Party that he leads has stated publicly - and never rescinded - its support for creating a state income tax, Bredesen is a smart politician who knows that the majority of Tennesseans do not want a state income tax. But as his predecessor showed, it is easy to create the illusion of fiscal crisis in state government, merely by proposing big spending increases that even the state's tax revenue coffers - growing at record rates - can't fully fund. Then, cry "shortfall!" and trot out the tired and data-deficient claim that the sales tax is "inelastic" (though states dependent on income taxes had worse deficits during the last recession than did states dependent on sales taxes). Then layer on a claim that the sales tax is "unfair" even though everyone pays, rich and poor, pays it - even tourists - and propose "tax reform" to solve all those problems and - as a bonus - make sure to designate all the extra revenue to "fix" our education system "for the children." It almost worked four years ago. And although the intervening years have seen a raft of pro-income tax legislators defeated or convinced to retire rather than face certain defeat, the playbook is still there, waiting for the next economic slowdown to give the pro-income tax forces new life. Will there be such an economic slowdown over the next five years? Probably. The only way to guarantee Bredesen won't then change his mind, decide one is needed and become interested in a state income tax in a second term is to deny him a second term. The second commented posted by an online reader of the City Paper's story notes that Bredesen's statement falls short of an adamant declaration of active opposition to any future income tax proposal: In politics, the trick is not who proposes legislation, rather who fails to oppose legislation; allowing it to become law. I have yet to see or hear Bredesen state that he will adamantly opposes a state income tax and more important, that he will defy his fellow Democrats from proposing or enacting a state income taxHe's right, of course. Bredesen's statement being trumpeted by the press as "ruling out" an income tax doesn't mean Bredesen will oppose such a tax if legislators propose it, or would veto such a tax if legislation reached his desk. Still, Bredesen's statement opens the door to more questions on the issue. A Republican candidate for governor ought to test the depth of his commitment on the issue by proposing and running on a fiscal platform that includes a proposed constitutional amendment to limit the growth of spending by state government, and making it more difficult to raise taxes, and a second constitutional amendment to explicitly ban the legislative creation of a state income tax. It's highly likely that Bredesen would oppose either provision. UPDATE: Bob Krumm points out in his comment below that Tom Humphrey's story in the Knoxville News Sentinel has more of Bredesen's statements about the income tax, which are more adamantly opposed to it. From the KNS story: Going a step beyond previous statements, Gov. Phil Bredesen on Monday ruled out pushing for a state income tax if re-elected to a second term next year. "I'm not interested in an income tax in a second term," Bredesen told reporters. "I don't think you need it. I don't think one is warranted and, frankly, I don't intend to propose one."The KNS story - from which the AP derived its story - still doesn't include a quote from an independent group opposed to the income tax, to counterbalance the quote from the advocacy group condemning Bredesen for opposing the income tax. The KNS story notes that Bredesen has refused to sign a pledge to oppose an income tax. Having made his statement opposing the tax, Bredesen can not now be allowed a free pass on the issue. His predecessor made much stronger statements against the income tax, and then pushed hard to pass one. Bredesen's opposition to the anti-income tax pledge, and his recent statements opposing limits on state taxes and spending should be more thoroughly explored by the Republican Party's candidate for governor. Will Bredesen back his opposition to the income tax with active support of a constitutional amendments to ban the income tax? Will he actively support and campaign for other taxpayer-protection measures such as amending the state constitution to strengthen the "Copeland Cap" controling the growth of state spending? Probably not - and voters ought to know that. Comments
Bill, Too bad that we have to go to Knoxville to get news from the state capitol. Posted by: Bob K at September 27, 2005 10:56 AMI don't know Bill. I have not seen any history of Bredesen flat our lying or changing a position like this. He kept his word in the first term and seems reluctant to make a commitment he won't be able to keep. He raised the taxes in Nashville but he made no commitment otherwise and in fact said that was his plan. I suspect he's looking at an '08 Whitehouse run as a fiscally conservative Democrat. Tht may be true, Jimmy, and I hope it is, but there is still much value in continuing to raise doubt about the depth of Bredesen's commitment, and to test tht commitment by asking him to back a constitutional ban on the income tax and to back harder caps on the growth of spending and taxes. Even if he indeed does intend to avoid proposing an income tax, a lukewarm response to those additional taxpayer protection proposals would hurt Bredesen politically while raising their profile in the election campaign, which might help elect more fiscal conservatives to the legislature. Posted by: Bill Hobbs at September 27, 2005 5:06 PMAgreed... Shoot, if I didn't know better, I'd think Phil was engaged in "pure political posturing" and "nonsense".... ;o) Posted by: Eric Holcombe at September 28, 2005 8:46 AMPost a comment
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Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen has "ruled out" seeking the creation of a state income tax in a second term, if he's re-elected, according to an 