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January 30, 2004

EconomyWatch: Solid GDP Growth

The Commerce Department's initial estimate of the economy's growth rate in the fourth quarter: 4 percent. In anyone's book that's solid economic growth if not an outright economic boom.

The CBS headline on the CBS/AP story: U.S. Economy Downshifts.

Meanwhile, USA Today explores why different government surveys on the labor market "increasingly tell different stories."

bushboombook.bmpA survey by the Labor Department of businesses showed there were 62,000 fewer jobs in December 2003 from a year ago. But a door-to-door survey of households showed there were 1.957 million more jobs in December from the prior year. Other data from private surveys only increase the confusion.
The answer is simple, really. The employer survey misses jobs created by self-employed people, independent contractors and small businesses. The household survey is a more accurate long-term indicator, as Bear Stearns economists noted recently.

Not surprisingly, CBS' story about the economic growth rate includes only the employer-survey data, not the household data.

No matter. The Bush Boom is rolling along, even if CBS News wants you to think otherwise.

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Comments

I remember when the Q3 GDP figures were released. The left howled that an 8.2% growth rate wasn't sustainable, would lead to rampant inflation, blah, blah, blah.

We all knew 8.2% was just a spurt, and that the economy would settle back to a healthier growth rate. And so it did: 4.0%. But now that's a sign that the economy is slowing??????

Puh-leeze.

Posted by: Steverino at January 30, 2004 9:19 AM

Yes, and an unemployment rate of less than 6% is considered outrageously high.
Go figure. It (6%) was always considered low unemployment in the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s.

Posted by: jane m at February 2, 2004 11:56 AM
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